Why S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

new_trader · Jan 24, 2013

Atilla said:
If my memory serves me correctly you said the gold bulls won this one at $1629.

You having a laff or wot?

Mate take your luggage and go where ever you want. Juvenile delinquent.

For anyone reading this thread who may be slightly baffled by Atilla’s utterly mentally retarded reply. He is referring to another thread (Yes, I know it is ridiculous, but he is actually replying to me in this thread, to something I wrote in another thread!). The thread he is referring to was a discussion about the 2012 Gold price. Gold DID NOT close 2012 @$1629 ...it only did that in Atilla’s bitter envious dreams..:cheesy:

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Duarte · Mar 3, 2013

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575.

Chart - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between May 1999 and March 2013.

Duarte · Mar 9, 2013

Duarte said:
After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold.
For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time,
I will use more 10 000 dollars.

I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs:

Higher Risk / UPRO
Medium-higher Risk /SSO
Medium Risk / SPY

In the first months of this year, the evolution of “buy and hold” portfolios was positive.

Duarte · Mar 10, 2013

Now, I am going to look again closely for the period between January 1968 and January 1985, as well as, for the period between November 1999 and March 2013.

Duarte · Mar 10, 2013

I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.

james1989 · Mar 12, 2013

Duarte said:
After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold.
For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time,
I will use more 10 000 dollars.

I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs:

Higher Risk / UPRO
Medium-higher Risk /SSO
Medium Risk / SPY

You will outperform 99.9% or more of the gamblers on these threads and other alternative investments over time. Inevitably you are more or less with GNP, and you would be a fool to bet against it.

Well done you for taking a step to create wealth for later years. For the other fools, take note and compare returns down the line.

Pat494 · Mar 12, 2013

Duarte said:
I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.

I think the difference between lines 1 and 2 could be down to QE and cheap credit. They can keep printing Mugabe style until inflation kicks in. So up and up much like 1928 and then BUST !! The politicians haven't the courage to call a halt to a policy even so obviously flawed.

Mr. Crabs · Mar 21, 2013

Interesting perspective but I disagree which pattern is re-emerging. You're saying 1964, I'm thinking we're about to pull something more akin to the 1990 market correction and subsequent boom.

Which would mean soon after the market breaches new highs we will collapse again and find higher support before an enormous S&P rush well past 2,000.

And to answer your question - the S&P will be much higher because the money supply has expanded.

Duarte · Apr 1, 2013

Duarte said:
I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.

The two paths described remain open as long as the S&P 500 remains below to 1625.

If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2.

I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis to determine the need to change the initial plan.

Pat494 · Apr 2, 2013

5 years is a long time to look ahead. Barring war and other extreme crises then I think the established economies had better watch out. The BRICS and other economies are catching up fast. They have everything to win while the elderly businesses and Govts will have difficulty keeping up. Their open policies and technologies will hasten this process which will be painful for some, going backwards.

Duarte · Apr 6, 2013

See here the buy and hold portfolios update:

Mr. Crabs · Apr 7, 2013

Pat494 said:
5 years is a long time to look ahead. Barring war and other extreme crises then I think the established economies had better watch out. The BRICS and other economies are catching up fast. They have everything to win while the elderly businesses and Govts will have difficulty keeping up. Their open policies and technologies will hasten this process which will be painful for some, going backwards.

I think as long as the FED continues to be responsible there is no reason the S&P won't be much higher, aside from the fact that fluctuations might bring the price down just as the 5 year mark hits... But the expanded money supply makes the S&P reaching new highs consistently a no brainer.

Duarte · Apr 21, 2013

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios.

Duarte · Apr 21, 2013

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.
At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.
Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

edflower · Apr 22, 2013

I believe that growth is inevitable, given technological advances that increase productivity. To me, it seems a no-brainer that the S&P will continue to advance.

Pat494 · Apr 22, 2013

I think unemployment will be a major issue. New net technology will put a huge amount of teachers out of work for instance. The gap between rich and poor is getting wider all the time. Especially with Tories like Cameron. Even so under Blair's socialists.