THT's Methods that WIN

[THT]

More Insight into TREND

DOWN trending section #1:

• Moving averages in PERFECT order + STEEP ANGLE = Pressure to the downside
• Price pulls back to the 10/20 SMA's and drops
• It also forms the 123/Ross Hook
• So you can go short on either the pullback to the MA's or when the ross Hook is exceeded

Moving Averages then flatten out, twist and turn as price goes sideways, price breaks out to the upside and...........

UP trending section #2:

• Moving averages move into PERFECT order = POSSIBLE up trending section
• Price then stays ABOVE the 10 SMA - NO 2RSI <25% on this one, BUT
• There were multiple Ross Hooks to the upside which then forced the SMA's into a STEEP angle

Like I've said before - you don't need that many 3R+ trades per month to win at this game - Don't chase crap set-ups, they add to the risk, just be absolutely steadfast to your set-up - let all those going bust, chase the risky set-ups.

If you're of the cautious nature, then you could sell a portion of the position once up X R profit etc - to bank initial profits, then trail up the rest of the position, but that dilutes things a bit, so you need to work out if that's you or not

Lets pretend that we take 16 trades per month (for the maths in this example) using TREND set-up & it has a 50% win rate

8 wins and 8 loses - we'll assume NO mistakes and an average of 3R win nett of costs and an exact 1R cost for loses

8 x 3 = 24 R wins minus 8 R losses = Net 16R per month

If 1R = £150 then £150 x 16 = £2,400 per month - that's £24,000 if you work 10 months of the year

Then to make more, you just increase the position sizing, so keeping everything the same, but this time lets say our account is £50k and we want to risk 1% of it £500 per trade then............................

We make £8k per month and £80k per year based on 10 months

Lets worsen the parameters and our system only wins 40% of the time, we'll leave the risk at £150 per trade

16 trades = 6 wins and 10 losers

6 x 3 R = 18 R per month less 10 R = nett 8R profit per month

8 x £150 = £1,200 = £12k per year if only trade 10 months

Based on £500 = 1R = £4k per month or £40k per year based on 10 months

Once you have total confidence in your methods, you can then just manipulate the numbers to get to where you need/want to be

Now in the process of typing up this post, I've been interrupted a lot of times - one of those days the phone is going non-stop on things I have to answer/take - So apologies if I've messed up with the maths anywhere

 

[THT]

This is currently a LIVE trade - details not shown but you'll be able to work out the trade from the last 2 bars on the chart - the only down side aspect to this is its fairly well on (time wise) in an established confirmed UP TREND - due to this I've reduced the £ risk on the trade - which if you're not 100% on is perfectly fine and acceptable - When I umm and arrgh on a trade, I find its best for me to take less £ risk

For non-UK traders - Weatherspoons is a lovely cheap low cost ale house, with hundreds of outlets - If you are in the UK and you fancy no thrills beer and food and or just cheap beer - Weatherspoons is the place to go and because of my "warped" sense of humour, I also like trading their stock when it forms a set-up as I just see it providing me with even more free beer, as I use my trading profits to spend in their establishments every now and then ( a few times a month!)

I just wanted to show you 2 spread bets I took the other week - Trend + 2RSI <25% + SMALL RANGE BAR

= MORE CHANCE of being a multiple R value profit (as mentioned previously)

The above is the 60 min chart - below is the DAILY chart so you can see what the 60 min and lower time-frames are doing to the daily pattern - NOTHING SPECTATULAR!

Don't be put off "Day Trading" - When you have a method that is very profitable, it will work on ANY time-frame

Day trading has got a very bad name for itself, because people don't trade properly or with the discipline required to win and succeed

Below is a 5 minute chart of the FTSE100 Index - looks like a normal monthly/weekly/daily/hourly chart - but you can still see the methods I've talked about - TREND AND 123/ROSS HOOKS

Just WAIT for picture perfect set-ups and

 

[THT]

Yesterday I mentioned the LIVE trade - I'll follow up on it now as its closed out

Everything previously mentioned on TREND applied to the trade - it was just a well established trend and the swing correction was fairly abrupt as well as being GREATER in price than previous corrections in the trend - the net result is/was that the MOOD between bears and bulls was clearly altering

This is not a problem, but the trend may be over, however, there was still a trade on, but it wasn't a trend trade

It was a "Rubber Band" trade set-up - price moved down very fast and the 10 SMA REMAINED flat/static - a snap back to the SMA is/was a high probability trade and as you can see it achieved that in the 1st hour of trading today

I've not talked about this set up before, but its well known and as long as price plunges BELOW a still rising MA then the chances of price snapping back to the MA are very high

I view these opportunities as quick scalps - in/out - this one was less than a 1:1 R:R so not ideal - when you're starting just trade the 2R+ opportunities

 

[THT]

If you've read the thread, you'll understand all the parameters of the chart below

Remember, you do not need many 3R+ winners per month to kill it at this game and remember SMALL NARROW range BARS enable you to achieve this when all the conditions are met

There's just one issue with the TREND condition in the chart below..........................................................

The RSI reading was 25.5%

If you filtered by using a strict 25% 2RSI reading, then you'd of never seen this set-up in your list!

It is perfectly fine to "loosen" some of the parameters and use Indicators as a guide - If you filter by Indicator % then set it for 29/30% and it will flag a few extra markets you might of normally missed - most of the time they won't be any good but a few times a year they will be

You could also filter by price in relation to the moving averages with or without the Indicator too - just remember the more specific and strict you apply filters, then the more chance of missing plum trades like this!

John Carter always said "Don't be a dick for a tick" This is loosely what he meant

That being said - I can flick through 400 markets at the close within 30 mins, so if I'm not in a rush at the end of the day, I prefer to "eyeball" charts so I can see other possible set-ups as well as seeing what price has done etc

This trade set-up formed on Tuesday 19th March 2024, it TRIGGERED into the trade the following day on Wednesday 20th March 2024 (Spring Equinox) and today 21st March 2024 it exploded higher as of the current bar on the chart

Once you have a method that works in the markets, then you can "tweak" the parameters to suit you and your style - lots of markets reverse at the 26/27/28% 2RSI levels

The PRICE BAR NARROWNESS is far more IMPORTANT than the 2RSI reading

The reason I've showed you the 2RSI Indicator (in case you've forgotten) was to show you that it often caught the price cycles the markets form and move to - which it did in this example.

 

[THT]

You will NOT catch them all - see blue circle

This was perfectly setting up in the last 1hr 30 mins of the trading day - alarms and buy order set just above the previous bars high, but it never triggered - the following day at the open it gapped (I don't chase gaps) for what would of been a tremendous trade

I don't buy at the days close either - which if I had, would have paid off, but you just never know and even though I am aggressive as a trader, I'm not that aggressive

Forget about how much price changed - think in terms of R value profit - 1R would be the RANGE + a little extra (spread) of the entry bar - in this example it would the range of the RED small bar Immediately before the Gap up open - as you can see if we had been on board this trade, it was a multiple R value profit greater than 3R or 3 times amount risked

But as I said and why I am showing you - we do not catch them all

There will be a time when you are watching 2+ markets at exactly the same time and you'll miss taking a position in the other markets, only for them to runaway! It happens!

Anyway - the point is I missed the opportunity, yes it was hugely frustrating at the time, BUT, as I have shown you throughout this thread MANY MORE opportunities arise as time passes and I can guarantee you, that you will get in on many other runaways if you apply the RULES over and over and over

WD Gann used to write "Its following the rules that's makes you rich"

Which is partly true, but you also need a method that actually works

 

[THT]

OK lets look a few other methods - I'm not a big fan of traditional Technical Analysis, but some of it works a treat, but its a bit more risky than trading with the trend

The main thing to adhere to here is do not FORCE anything, it'll either be correct or wrong - do NOT GUESS

Double/Triple Bottoms - Gann loved them - you are trying to defy the laws of momentum here, but when you get it right, you can win big

Here's a weekly chart of an Investment Trust - I've colour coded the circles to then drop down to the daily charts to show you like for like

You could have traded the GREEN DB for a decent profit because the DB in the GREEN circle was a nice (ish) narrower range bar than the others - the PINK DB was tradeable, but it wasn't great - If we can get in on the DAILY chart we might have a much better R:R and R return

Also note that the GREEN DB was also a "Rubber Band" trade on the weekly chart

The TARGETS for Double/Triple Bottoms, whether they get there or not is the HIGH of the previous WEEKLY swing high

With these, when you drop down a time-frame, remember we are identifying the opportunity on the WEEKLY chart to then try to trade from the DAILY chart for better R value returns - If you WAIT until the WEEKLY chart forms the pattern, you might MISS the opportunity! - So I always view from the DAILY chart and when a DB/TB forms on the daily chart, I always then quickly view the WEEKY chart to see and confirm

Here's the DAILY BLUE DB's - sure you will agree 2 good opps, on the daily chart the weekly DB turned into a Triple Bottom!

On the WEEKLY chart it was "technically" a Triple Bottom, but the slight over-run of lower price causes me to ignore that event, so I've only classed it as a DB rather than TB - BUT on the DAILY chart it turned into a very nice DB formation, so with this trade all I did was use the DAILY chart as the reference chart

Notice the 2RSI <25% = works nicely on these reversal trades too, because the same principles apply to this as well as trend in regards to the Indicator!

There was GAP - I don't chase gaps, so I set an alarm for price to get back towards the high of the set-up bar - thankfully it did EXACTLY that in this case - and I bought at the market on the retracement, then it was off

The stop goes on LEG 1 of the Double Bottom pattern

Here's the DAILY PINK pattern

This one result in an early entry into the position - stop under leg 1 of the DB - price faffed about sideways for a few weeks, stop still not hit, so we stay in the trade in and out of profit and losing position, then the row of Inside bars = another buying opportunity, then off

NOTE - OCT'22 would have TRICKED you into taking a Triple Bottom trade - It again "technically" was a TB for what price did but it was not a clean TB trade - you could have re-established the position/trade on the 123 from the LOW which nicely rested right on the horizontal line connecting the bottoms - the 2RSI was <25% AND a narrow range bar = TRADE! and you got your money back + some from the loss

Then we get to the DAILY GREEN DB pattern

A nice small range bar at a DB = trade setting up

Here's a Gann Box - notice that the 1st hit of the extended line was a EXACT PERFECT hit and reversal!

Close up

Here's a TRIPLE TIME-FRAME of a DB - NOTICE that ALL 3 Time-Frames 2RSI <25% at the REVERSAL point (You don't really need the Indicator, but just showing you what sometimes happens on the Indicator side at key reversal places)

OCT'22-April'23 DB:

Not shown as it would clog up the chart - run horizontal lines from significant swing highs and lows, colour code them - you will then see when double/triple tops and bottoms are potentially setting up and then devise a method to trade them

 

[THT]

So this is a UK stock

Big BEAR market down - The "Buy its cheap" crowd were getting crucified for months/years

Then those of us, that understand the markets, were doing the following:

1. Watching the moving averages
2. Watching the swings
3. Drawing Gann Boxes (not shown - but the Fib retracement tool highlights the basic outline)
4. Drawing Fib retracement tools AND EXTENDED angle lines
5. Drawing our Horizontal Swing lines

REMEMBER - Discipline and Patience are a traders best friends

So we get a rally from Oct'22 LOW - If you are Interested in this I would recommend squishing the weekly bars together so that you have a look back period back to March 2009 and you will see EXACTLY why price in Oct'22 stopped where it did - ALWAYS LOOK LEFT to see if anything significant occurred at a price level you are looking at!

We then wait to see what price does as it hits the gann box 25% levels (not shown) - you'll notice on here I show you the EXACT same principle through the FIB levels - I've mentioned it in a previous Gann Box post, this is the REASON for slight overshoots of price on a std fib retracement tool! - and you will notice MONTHS INADVANCE of price getting there, that you have 3 lines intersecting

• The UP Gann box extended angle up through the Fib retracement level of 38.2%
• The DOWN Gann box extended angle down through the Fib retracement level of 61.8%
• The 50% price retracement level horizontal from the Gann box and fib ret tool

You'd of been, as I was, patiently waiting as the weeks ticked by to see what price did as it gets closer and closer and then on the EXACT WEEK of the Intersection bang the start of a collapse in price

PS - Be under no doubt, this market was working out to the GEOMETRY of FIB ratios which were evidenced on the extended angles of which you should be sat thinking how and why

This GEOMETRY stuff keeps on rearing its head doesn't it!

We now sit tight and watch as price descends to the double bottom line - those of you that bothered to look back to 2009 know that this is actually a Triple Bottom zone! (Most won't put the work in and then they dwell on why they are a crap trader and go bust - Don't be one of them)

So you now skip down to the DAILY time-frame to watch and wait for set ups, setting alarms etc

 

[THT]

Remember the rules for TREND?

If not recap them, then if you cannot follow rules and make a living from this game then you need to give up - its just not hard

Perfect order SMa's, price pullsback, 2RSI <25%, NARROW range bar = buy if price trades ABOVE the HIGH of the NR bar = easier to make 3R+

All you have to do is STALK this trading set-up to win - no deviations from it, just get it ingrained in your brain and wait until it shows up on ANY time-frame

Lets say you have a £25k trading account and risk 1% per trade =£250 - 3R is £750 - you only have to do that 3 times a month to win - forget about losses for the time being (you WILL have them), but for now forget about them, Lets say you got 1 3R profit (after any losses) per WEEK = £750 for the week, £2,500 per month (tax-free depending on how you trade this) £30k per year - that's over a 100% return per year!

The FEAR sets in when you try to second guess the future - we don't know if a trade will work, all we know is that a method works overall and with that overall if we place enough trades we WILL WIN - we don't know the order of the losses either, but we KNOW over time the method WINS handsomely - with this knowledge you HAVE to TRUST the system and the method

Then to win more £'s you trade more risk say 2% of the account or trade the same 1% risk but more trades

This one is a live trade on Natwest from the hourly chart:

This one is slightly different - As the trade is right near the highs, I've sold half of the position and placed the stop on the entry line - I only lose if it gaps down on me and because its month end I don't need to hold out for max return, so I've taken cash off the table and see what happens - because I'm in control

 

[THT]

Going to try and get some time off over Easter - hence the mad posting today

If I can make a living playing this game YOU can definitely too - I'm just your average cookie who's LEARNT

This is what I'm watching this week - for the DOUBLE BOTTOM trade method

It's just today VIOLATED the previous swing low, so we have to watch price around it - it might be a "LOST MOTION" Gann overspill, so keep watching price next few days/weeks (DAILY chart will be best to view)

Also note that there's another major swing low point lower in price - price might be working out to that or the DB might not be on and price might be going lower! - this is WHY we watch, calmly, patiently etc

DAILY chart

At the close of business YESTERDAY and throughout TODAY (last bar on the daily chart) I had an alarm set for the HIGH of YESTERDAYS price bar - the market was in position for a PERFECT Double Bottom set-up

As that high was NOT taken out = no trade

As the swing low has been violated = WATCH, it might be a Gann lost motion overspill but the bigger lower swing low might be attracting prices - Its hard to believe that anyone will be daft enough to have their stops placed there, but you never know, nothing surprises me in this game

If price forms a DB at the big major swing low @ 82p and the set-up triggers, then the target is 103p Initially with the overall target the 120p's+

Obviously this is just Initial thinking - the market might not want to follow my preferences

So we are now on DAILY or HOURLY reversal signal watch to see if the trade is on

 

[THT]

Its not all win win win - we are 100% GUARANTEED to have losing trades, its just a horrible nasty fact of trading

Here's one I prepared earlier (just happened in fact)

Price opened today BELOW (GAPPED) my stop - The USA markets had a big down day, so when US markets sneeze, the UK market Sh%^ themselves

The trade ended up a 0.75R loser - the Initial risk on the trade was 0.5% of the account size - I work on the fact that 1% risk = 1R and 1% or 1R is my standard trade size

But look, this happens in the real world - you have to assume every trade you place is going to lose and that FORCES you to focus on RISK and account preservation

 

[THT]

Here's a mix of methods and techniques rolled into one chart example

1. The Gann Box extended angle - Ran through the 70.7% retracement level and price stopped at the 57.7% retracement level
2. TWO differing ratios halted price - 57.7% is related to the CUBE (also showed up in March 2009 at the SP500 LOW) and 70.7% is related to the SQUARE (50% of the square root of 2 - 1.4142)
3. with 2RSI <25% confirmation
4. Next we have a live trade being trailed (ATW) - BLUE circle
5. We have perfect order SMA's
6. pull back to the SMA's by price along with
7. 2RSI <25% AND
8. A NARROW RANGE BAR = possible multiple R value profits (which are locked in by the trailing stop
9. Use the BRIGHT BLUE circle to Imagine a CLOCK face - the SMA's are angled nice through 2-3 o'clock on the circle = NICE/PERFECT angle (This is most likely a 45 degree angle or near enough
10. If the ANGLE is stronger than 45 degs - then you need to employ other methods to catch the trend, as the 2RSI WON'T pull back to <25% on those moves until the move is running out of juice etc
11. Remember you only need 1 of these per week to do really well in this game

The quicker you accept that the markets aren't some random movement of price, the quicker you realise WHY price does what it does

 

[THT]

Just updating a few things and thought I'd update you on the SP500 Comp Index

• BLUE Line = SP500
• RED Line = Comp Index

The RED line has NOTHING to do with price levels - it JUST informs of the highest probability DIRECTION of price based off multiple time cycles

As you can see Its not been that wrong of late!

End of May is the Peak (although the actual price high can come in before or after the red line date due to "translation" of the cycle)

As we can see anyone with the composite cycle Index had the direction of the SP500 written out for them YEARS in advance, Lets see what happens in the next few months - obviously you WAIT for price to confirm the expected Comp Index direction and then you trade accordingly

If I project that flat blue line out 10 years, we will have a high probability sequence for the the SP500 of which it will follow to approx 85% correlation - which is HUGE in the markets

Here's the long term DJIA comp Index from 1900 to present - Fairly accurate!

I have the projection to 2100 - You just cannot argue with evidence like this - we have for the next 90 years all the major turns of the USA markets known in advance give or take 6 months either side of the dates

All we do is WAIT for the dates, WAIT for confirmation of TREND and then take a position

I have other cycle analysis that confirms turns around these dates for double confirmation of cycles

 

[THT]

Couple of updates on a couple of trades shown above

REMEMBER we are looking for returns of MULTIPLE R value - R = The RISK of the trade (Entry to the Initial Stop)

This one did not reach 2RSI <25% it reversed at 31% - If you were scanning using a computer system, then you would have missed this one

But it was a beautiful set-up - The twisting SMA's the falling 2RSI then the narrow range bar sat bang on the SMA's and then the reversal

If you study the chart, everything apart from the 2RSI <25% was signalling bounce in price

This is why unless I'm short for time, I prefer to "eyeball" charts - a scan of 2RSI <33% would also pick out these types of set-ups, which would shorten the overall and is probably something that I'll revert to (apart from on a Saturday slow and steady analysis of the markets) after writing up this post

This chart was shown the other week for Natwest Plc on the 60 min chart

Remember, I sold 50% of the position out (mistake, but deemed acceptable at the time) the other week and then left the other 50% trailing price

You can see on the chart below where I got in and out - It I hadn't of sold 50% of the position off, it would of been a grand old trade in terms of R value return and £'s! But, at the time I was wary of the it being at highs - it was still a grand trade, just could of been much better

We don't need to be able to forecast the future, know about cycles or anything like that - just REPEAT the set-up over and over and you will win big time

Its when you start to second guess yourself and the method that trouble crops up

 

[THT]

More trades

Red = Loss
Blue = Win

This shows WHY its IMPORTANT to trail a stop and let the market exit you from the trade

These trades are still LIVE as the market ain't kicked me out yet

 

[THT]

Here's a little trick I use right at 4.20-4.25pm

YOU HAVE TO BE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN OF THE OVERALL TREND

If you get BULLISH price movement for days on end, it MEANS that the force building is UP (until it stops obviously), this then lends itself to a trading method using the 2RSI TREND method on an hourly chart right at the close of play

If you try this in a sideways or flat market, it will not work that well and obviously you never buy long in a down trending market

You are 100% responsible for your trading - If in doubt, simply do not trade

If you get a 2RSI <30% in the final 10 minutes of the UK trading session, along with a narrow range bar, then this method is potentially on, the key is the trend direction, you have to be as certain as you can be that its UP - this is proved and shown in the chart below showing steadily rising prices over the course of a month on an hourly chart (You'll need real-time data for this)

This IS a RISKY strategy, but it works:

1. You buy in long in the final 10 mins of the trading session
2. Your STOP goes 1 penny under the entry bar
3. The aim is for a gap UP open on the open of the next trading day - When this happens, it creates multiple R profit as you can see
4. How you trail/manage the trade is up to you - I just trail a very tight stop from the open
5. Your stop goes to Break Even as fast as possible
6. YOU WILL have losing trades that GAP DOWN against you causing multiple R losses - this is a FACT and you HAVE to be comfortable with that fact - you have to sell out in full as fast as possible
7. This only works on shares with a tight SPREAD and you are responsible for calculating costs involved as to profitability etc
8. You need to have NO distractions between 8-9am the following trading day if employing this tactic as markets move fast in this 1st hour
9. If at all worried, concerned or doubtful - just do not trade it

 

[THT]

WHEN IT ALL GOES WRONG​

STOP, take 5

Do not open your trading account and go somewhere where you can relax and analyse your trades for the past month

Then work out what worked and what didn't - INGRAIN this into your brain, to REPEAT and NOT REPEAT (you know which I mean!)

I often flick through my trading charts of set-ups/methods just to remind me of what works and what doesn't (so I can avoid those trades)

Then work out what 1% of your account is and divide by 2 so your new trading amount is 0.5% of your account or less - until you sort your head and emotions out and then bang it back up to 1% again

Write out on a card - "Picture Perfect Trades ONLY this week" and place it somewhere you can see it all the time on your trading desk

Think about GRADING your trade:

• Planning & Calcs
• Entry
• Trade Management whilst the trade was on and most importantly YOUR EMOTIONS during the trade
• Trade Exit
• The whole trade from start to finish etc

I've just literally taken a trade on the gold 60 min chart - I'd grade it as a 8/10

The 2 out of 10 was that I elected to manually sell the rather than trail up a stop as since the trade opened, my situation for monitoring it changed - family matter that requires my attention - so I've had to change the plan on trailing it up, so to avoid hassle I just sold at the market (for a profit @ 2445) which was a 1.64R profit

I knew as soon as my wife poked her head around the door, that I wasn't going to be able to watch the trade - She's funny like that, sometimes she wants to be talked to for some reason LOL

I found 15 years ago an excellent source was John F Carters "Mastering the Trade" book - he has a chapter at the end of the book on all this and keeping things in check, again I'll read through that chapter as a refresher - In fact its on the to do list Monday morning to re-read as well as Dr Van Tharps (RIP) Trade your self to Financial Freedom - Once you've read these books a few times, you can quickly flick through them in no time as a reminder and checking tool

Anyway have a grand old weekend

 

[THT]

and in relation to the GOLD trade mentioned in the post above - It was a bit of SHEER LUCK too!

I timed that exit perfectly, through sheer luck - I should have played the lottery too!

 

[THT]

Remember if we have a £25k account, risking 1% a trade = 1R = £250 - Remember account PRESERVATION is KEY

To make 3R per week = 3 x £250 = £750

Then we can simply BE PATIENT and WAIT for picture perfect trades to appear

You get many opportunities on the 1 hour chart EVERY week if you search through hundreds of markets

Here's a few examples:

This one was on my watchlist FRIDAY 12th April - I saw the Double Bottom (did not trade it) - This is not a 24 hour chart shown - Set an alarm on my spreadbetting account which follows the after market price moves, left my computer on and entered this Friday evening

I don't usually do this trade after 4pm, but I love Triple Bottoms and did not want to miss this opportunity

As you can see it paid off - Trailing up a stop as we speak - sorry, just stopped out whilst writing up this post

The TARGET for DB's or TB's is always the swing high of the prev bottom - as you can see on the chart it hit it

Next was FTSE100 hourly chart this am - self explanatory

Next was TW.

and there's your 3R profit for the week - Lots of people tell you, you can't make a living trading with a small account, but you can

I'm not saying my account is £25k, I'm just showing you the methods, the thinking and by trading with discipline and whatnot, then you CAN

Here's another Triple Bottom from the other week - actually it was a perfect triple bottom formation - WD Gann used to love them and he bought in right at the price low of bottom #2 with a small stop just below price bottom #1

My entry is 1 penny above the high of the price bar labelled #3 (RED bar) with the stop 1 penny under price low of swing low #1, getting out at 679 for a decent move that lasted 2 trading days

Gann allowed a small violation of a swing low - I don't, for me the prices MUST all be equal or higher than Swing low #1

Yes it went higher, and we got in on another set-up thereafter - In terms of R values, this one turned into a double digit R profit over 10 trading days which is 2 weeks, LONG only

So lets say we can make 5R per week on average for 44 weeks of the year

3R = 132% and 5R = 220%

of which I have shown you for months methods that work, you can see the approx return you can make simply by being patient and only trading nice crisp set-ups and leaving the poor set-ups to other traders to risk their cash on

You can completely balls this up though, by trading those less than perfect set-ups, being greedy, not following a plan/rules etc etc etc

Notice the trade in TW. was a "similar" formation to the set-up in STAN of the 25th March 2024 - 1,2,3,4,5 swings then off - obviously not exact, but you can see the pattern and the expectation (NOT Elliott Wave)

Even if you just risked 0.5% of your account per trade, that would be 1.5R per week profit over 44 weeks = 66%

Which would completely beat 99.9% of fund managers out there and almost every other trader/Investor

You've probably tried the buy and hold thing - unless you get super lucky and manage through luck to time perfect a low of a market, you are likely to be bobbing around with your Investments, steadily growing the account over the years but no way close to 66% per YEAR

Eventually when you grow an account to a big size, it becomes harder to get filled on big buy orders, so that restricts you simply compounding @ large % returns per year, but you should get the picture and understand the principle we're talking about

But remember, when they tell you, you can't make money using an Indicator(s), question their knowledge on the markets - just because someone once x years ago tried to trade with MACD, STOCHASTIC, WILLIAMS %R or RSI, does not mean that they did it right or tested it properly, but as they couldn't get it to work, no-one else in the world could ever possibly do so!

The markets are patterned, they are controlled by the Planets and they most certainly are not random

 

[THT]

Lets have a look back at some market CYCLES - These really are the driving force of the markets, you need people/traders & Investors to change direction, to force the cycle, to force price action - it all works in beautiful harmony - But the majority aren't smart enough to know to buy the lows and force the turns, something forces the turns, then the buyers come in greater than the sellers

When I have the time, I run through (you only need to do this once) all the shares in my trading universe and see if there are any repeating cycles of note - I'll then mark the cycle roughly on the chart and the expectation - This takes at most 10 mins per chart/market - I use this for my SIPP/ISA Investments as its too much work to trade in those accounts

Notice that in the chart the BEST returns for catching this cycle were when PRICE formed the BIG LOWS - we do not know how much price will move this time around, you just have to get a position and monitor/trail*

I DON'T trade this blindly, I need PRICE to physically do things to confirm

* The LAST 3 cycles have had a "BLAST OFF/ROCKET" moment during the move - This IS due to a PLANET/ASTRO POSITION, you need to search for the planetary "condition" then you WILL be able to pin-point the EVENT again in the future EXACTLY in terms of TIME
Remember we see GEOMETRY in the price action of markets, the planets cycle around our SUN in 360 degrees, that means their cycles are GEOMETRIC too, so you may need to apply geometric principles to work out the event date etc

As you can SEE from the price chart - PRICE ALWAYS forms a 123 formation (mentioned in previous posts) to some degree AND the SMA's cross - Do not bank on a blast off/rocket move its NOT guaranteed, but it happens often, other factors could be in place that lessen the effects influence on price - but you can see what I'm getting at

Please note that the PINK vertical line on the price chart is NOT exact to the date of the blast off/rocket - its approx for the purposes of showing you this - I can't do all the work for you!

 

[THT]

Here's another long term (expectation is target to hit this year) TOP DOWN forecast

As you can see from the chart - Logical analysis

THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN - IT MEANS, BASED ON THE EVIDENCE OF WHAT IS SEEN, THIS IS A HIGH PROBABILITY POSSIBILITY

So here are the possibilities if it reaches the ZONE:

1. The Triple Top HOLDS - there could be a slight breach or not or even an exact TT - If it holds and IS valid price WILL decline towards the swing low @ 12000 (over time) - This is THOUSANDS of pips and AGAIN its a possible target NOT a certainty
2. The Triple Top HOLDS - there could be a slight breach etc - Price pulls back/corrects/declines to a key retracement support level or extended Gann Box angle - then BOUNCES (Take a look at GOLD recent years) - The BOUNCE WILL then most likely break the TT level
3. If the bounce fails again at the TT level, making a 4th TOP, then the market needs to be watch for direction
4. If the TT is breached significantly - ANYTIME GOING FORWARD, watch for a pullback/correction back to the TT level which might act as support - again watch and formulate a plan at the "events" time
5. PS not shown on the MONTHLY chart, there is a 50% EXTENDED Gann Box angle RIGHT @ the TT level and in the next few months! (Draw the box from 2007 UP to 2016 high) This is just too much of a coincidence to ignore - it might not come to anything, but you HAVE to be AWARE of the fact

TRADING PLAN:

• Look for long entries as long as bullishness exists
• Reassess everything if TT level is closely approached

It can't much simpler than this

If you apply the Gann Box method then run retracement levels at 66.7% UP AND DOWN on the box, then run a trend line through those levels - 66.7% is a ratio of the CUBE
Also draw 1 x 1 45 degree (Bott Left corner up to the Top right corner) of the Gann box - Now copy that angle and run it from the bottom RIGHT point of the Gann Box and you will see it intersects at virtually the exact same spot as the 50% extended angle up!