Technical Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

Eurozone HICP in July rose by 5.5% YoY, and headline CPI increased by 5.3%. Q2 Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. German Retail Sales in June rose by 1.6% YoY, beating expectations. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4.25% but hinted at a possible pause in September due to easing inflationary pressures. In the US, the PCE Price Index fell to 3% in June, and the Core PCE Price Index dropped to 4.1% YoY. The US Dollar strengthened to 102.00 on Tuesday, despite softer US inflation data. Market participants will focus on global Manufacturing PMI and Germany's Unemployment rate. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday is expected to show 180,000 new jobs and a 3.6% employment rate.
The EUR/USD, after yesterday's correction, encountered resistance at the 1.1045 level and is currently continuing the selloff, now in the downtrend of the long bullish channel. The DXY is also touching the resistance area at 102. On a daily basis, the 100MA serves as the next target for EURUSD at 1.0900.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The US Dollar has strengthened due to prospects of tighter policies by the Federal Reserve, supported by a strong US GDP report. Worries about a downturn in China also contribute to the USD's safe-haven appeal. However, optimism over more Chinese stimulus and expectations of the Fed ending its rate hike cycle might cap the USD's gains. On the other hand, expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England could support the British Pound. Market participants are also looking at upcoming economic data and key policy meetings for further trading opportunities.
The GBP/USD moved without direction at the beginning of this week. The next support is around the down parallel of the long bullish trend at the 1.2750 level. The resistance level is at 1.2900.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

JPYUSD

The Japanese Yen is being impacted by the Bank of Japan's policy shift. The BoJ Governor has granted more flexibility to the Yield Curve Control (YCC), maintaining interest rates while making bond-buying operations easier. The central bank also conveyed a strong message about possibly moving away from its long ultra-dovish policy.
Investors are anticipating the United States Manufacturing PMI for July, which will be reported by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The economic data is projected to continue its eight-month contracting trend, influenced by higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (Fed). US factory activities are expected to reach 46.5, surpassing the previous release of 46.0.
USDJPY broke the 142.00 resistance level and is now at the median level of the long bullish channel at 143.00. Meanwhile, the yields on Japanese bonds continue to rise.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

In July, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, the lowest level since January, impacting precious metals due to China's status as a major gold consumer. The Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.3 but remained below 50, indicating contraction. Meanwhile, the NBS Services PMI declined from 53.2 to 51.5.
In the United States, evidence of easing underlying price pressures may prompt the Fed to soften its hawkish stance, potentially limiting the US Dollar's strength and supporting the gold price. The PCE Price Index decreased to 3% in June, while the Core PCE Price Index was at 4.1% annually.
Trade tensions between the US and China over technology access may add pressure to the gold price. China announced export restrictions on certain drones and equipment to the US.
Market participants are awaiting various US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Private Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence USD price dynamics and create short-term trading opportunities around gold. The Sino-US relationship remains a focal point in the market. The gold came back after finding resistance at the mean line at the 1972.5 and the next support is at the 1948 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX40

European stocks slipped on Tuesday as weak factory activity data from Asia and some disappointing earnings stalled a rally in markets that had pushed several regional indexes to multi-year highs recently.
Asia's factory activity shrank in July, private surveys showed, a sign slowing global growth and weakness in China's economy was taking a toll on the region's fragile recovery. Eurozone factory surveys are due later in the day. Among companies that reported, DHL Group DHL fell 3% after the freight forwarder reported a slump in quarterly earnings as high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the ongoing energy crisis weighed on consumer demand and freight rates.
The main news in Europe is from earnings, with oil giant BP boosting its dividend despite a 70% fall in profit and HSBC launching a $2 billion buyback after profit beat forecasts.
DAX signaling a possible comeback as economic activity and economic data don’t show positive results and the possibility of a recession is growing even if yesterday's GDP in Europe was positive for the last quarter. The last support level is around 16220.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

On Tuesday, the U.S. government's top credit rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ from AAA. This decision angered the White House and surprised investors since the debt ceiling crisis had been resolved two months prior. Fitch cited fiscal deterioration over the next three years and concerns about repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations jeopardizing the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.
The latest Eurozone PMI report indicates minimal change, with the headline staying at 42.7 and Germany's at 38.8. However, there is positive news regarding Germany's unemployment rate, which fell to 5.6% in July. Despite this improvement, the interest rate market suggests that the likelihood of another rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) remains below 40%.
The EUR/USD found support around 1.0950 after the DXY also inversely touched the upper parallel of the long downtrend. A possible correction may occur, taking the EUR/USD back toward the 1.1046 resistance level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The recent gloomy prints of the UK's inflation data have created challenges for the Bank of England (BoE) hawks in their efforts to control high inflation amidst sluggish economic activities and workforce issues. Additionally, the British Pound (GBP) is facing difficulties due to the ruling Tory Party's latest disappointment, having lost some key seats in the by-elections.
The market's cautious sentiment before the upcoming BoE Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for release on Thursday, is posing difficulties for pair traders as they grapple with mixed feelings. Even though the UK central bank is expected to announce a 0.25% rate hike, uncertainties arise if the "Old Lady," as the BoE is informally referred to, decides to pause the rate increase, or adopts a dovish stance. In such a scenario, the EUR/GBP will likely experience further upside movement.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2750 level, showing a possible comeback toward 1.2800, as the dollar appears weak today.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

The Bank of Japan clarified that its recent policy adjustment does not indicate the beginning of a tightening cycle. Deputy Governor Shinichi Ichida emphasized that the flexible threshold for tolerance on long-term bond yields is a necessary modification to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy position. The decision aims to continue with monetary easing while responding to economic risks both positive and negative, given the high uncertainties for economic activity and prices both domestically and internationally. Ichida stated that they are not considering an exit from monetary easing at this time.
USDJPY price action on the Hourly chart shows a double top pattern, signaling a possible reversal. The next possible support level will be around 142.00, especially with a weak dollar today.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

Market sentiment remains cautious after Fitch downgraded the US Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from AAA to AA+. The downgrade is primarily due to expected fiscal deterioration and a high government debt burden over the next three years.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagrees with Fitch's decision, calling it "arbitrary and based on outdated data," adding to concerns about the US debt ceiling crisis and potential impact on the Greenback. Gold, being a safe-haven asset, may benefit from this situation.
Tensions between the US and China, with recent restrictions on drone exports, could also put pressure on the US Dollar. Furthermore, expectations of rate hikes by major central banks might limit the USD's upside and support the gold price.
Market participants are eagerly awaiting key economic indicators such as the US ADP Employment Change, weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Traders will also closely monitor US-China relations for possible influences on the gold price.
Gold found support at the 200MA, and everything depends on the US10Y performance. The first resistance is at the 1956 level, followed by 1965. If the actual support breaks, the price will likely move towards 1931.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

Dax 40

On Wednesday, European shares experienced a significant decline, reaching almost two-week lows. The losses were led by technology and auto stocks, as investors worldwide opted for safer assets following a surprise downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Fitch.
U.S. futures fell by more than half a percent, and bond prices increased after Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating on Tuesday. The agency cited concerns about fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations that could jeopardize the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.
Regarding individual stocks, Siemens Healthineers, a U.S.-German medical device maker, saw a 5.4% drop in its quarterly operating profit due to declining demand for COVID-19 tests and delivery delays at Varian, a cancer treatment specialist.
Hugo Boss, a German fashion house, also faced a 4.1% decline in its stock price, despite raising its full-year outlook.
DAX make a gap down impacted by the Fitch news and the next support could be the 15800.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The US government's top credit rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ from AAA. This decision angered the White House and surprised investors since the debt ceiling crisis had been resolved two months prior. Fitch cited fiscal deterioration over the next three years and concerns about repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations jeopardizing the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.

Private payrolls data that showed US companies added 324,000 workers last month, beating the consensus forecast of 190,000. Investors also reacted to news that the Treasury will issue $103 billion of securities next week, slightly more than forecast, and fresh on the heels of Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US.
Regarding the Eurozone PMI, the latest report indicates minimal change, with the headline staying at 42.7, and Germany's at 38.8. However, there was positive news in Germany's unemployment rate, which fell to 5.6% in July. Despite this, the interest rate market indicates that the likelihood of another rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) remains below 40%.
The EUR/USD continues to experience a selloff as the dollar benefits from positive economic data. The current support level is around 1.0900, followed by the 1.0850 level, which holds historical significance. Additionally, the 100MA on the 1-day chart may act as support for the time being.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is primed for intense volatility, as the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise interest rates at its fourteenth straight meeting today.
The Bank of England (BOE) is considering a 25-basis point hike after last month's inflation rate showed some improvement, sitting at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May. Despite the BOE's divergent stance from other central banks, high inflation levels and mixed labor and wage data may cause market apprehension about any unexpected moves similar to the half-point curve ball thrown at their previous meeting. The British economy has shown resilience, managing to avoid a recession for the time being. Traders will also keep a close eye on future guidance.
The GBP/USD at the support level of 1.2650 support area waiting for the BOE today event for direction. Any breakout may take the price down toward the next support at 1.2600.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the tolerance band for the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will widen from 0.5% to 1.0%. The move pushed JGB yields to their highest level since 2014. The 10-year JGB rose to 0.65% on Thursday.
The Bank of Japan intervened in the market for the second time this week to slow the rise in benchmark sovereign bond yields. This move reflects the bank's determination to control sharp fluctuations in rates while allowing them some room to increase. The buying operation had immediate effects on the currency market, weakening the yen, and causing mild choppiness in the Tokyo stock market, which remained lower.
USDJPY found resistance at the 144.00 level and a correction is happening now, but it may be temporary as the next big target is the 145.00 level, which represents the lowest point from where the authorities declared the possibility of an intervention.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
145.00	144.00	142.00	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday showed that private-sector employers in the United States (US) added 324K jobs in July, exceeding the anticipated 189K. This indicates continued labor market resilience, potentially shielding the economy from a recession and supporting the Fed's hawkish stance. The expectations are keeping the US Treasury bond yields elevated, leading to the possibility of a further near-term move up for the USD and suggesting a downside for the gold price. Investors have already digested the Fitch downgrade of the US government's credit rating to AA+ from AAA late Tuesday.
Policymakers' defense of US Treasury bonds and hopes for upbeat US economic growth are influencing gold sellers ahead of mid-tier US data related to employment and activities in July. Key data points include US ISM Services PMI for July and second-quarter readings of Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, which are crucial for determining Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and US Dollar movements.
Additionally, China's positive Caixin Manufacturing PMI is providing support to the XAU/USD price, requiring strong negatives from Beijing to keep the gold bears hopeful.
Gold continues the selloff and finds support at the 1932 level. The negative correlation with the US10Y is high. For any breakout of the actual support level, we find the 1920 followed by the 1900 support levels.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1932	1920

DAX40

European shares experienced their third consecutive decline on Thursday, mainly influenced by elevated U.S. bond yields and disappointing earnings reports, dampening sentiment before the Bank of England's interest rate decision.
The German DAX index suffered the most significant losses, particularly due to Infineon's 9% drop after the chipmaker predicted a decrease in fourth-quarter revenue amid a mixed picture in the semiconductor market.
London Stock Exchange Group's shares fell 3.5% following the announcement of its first-half numbers.
However, there were some positive developments as well. Shares of Societe Generale, France's third-largest listed bank, surged 3%, and ING Groep, the largest Dutch bank, rose 1.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Anheuser-Busch InBev saw a nearly 2% climb after the world's largest brewer reported higher-than-expected second-quarter earnings and maintained its 2023 forecast, supported by China's gradual post-COVID recovery and strength elsewhere.
Globally, stocks faced pressure as U.S. bond yields reached nine-month peaks following robust private jobs data and Washington's announcement regarding the refunding of maturing debt.
DAX continues the selloff and the support level of 15800 is important followed by the 15500.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

In Germany, the annual inflation rate for July 2023 was officially confirmed at 6.2%. This figure was slightly lower than the 6.4% observed in the previous month and remained close to the 14-month low of 6.1% recorded in May. These numbers indicated a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures within the country. However, the rate continued to significantly surpass the European Central Bank's target of 2.0 percent. Notably, the overall inflation for goods decelerated to 7.0% from 7.3%, primarily due to softer increases in the cost of food, as well as services. The inflation eased slightly (5.2% vs 5.3%).
In the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.5% with a Participation Rate of 62.6%. The US added 187K new jobs in the month, and Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.4% YoY, higher than expected. The US Dollar slightly declined, but the job growth suggests a cooling sector while a shrinking unemployment rate may lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its monetary tightening policy.
The EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1000 resistance level. It is now resuming its downward trend, respecting the down channel. The next support levels are 1.0920 and 1.0850. The 100MA on the daily chart is also playing support at the actual levels.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

The potential for further appreciation of the pound sterling (GBP) appears limited due to the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates. This move is putting additional strain on various sectors in the United Kingdom, such as housing, employment, and manufacturing. The GBP/USD pair is facing downward pressure because BoE policymakers are indicating the possibility of more tightening measures to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
BoE's Pill expresses confidence that the UK's inflation will ease to 5% within the current year, and the anticipated rate will be reached in the first half of 2025. However, there is a risk that as the British economy strives for 2% inflation, it might enter a recession. Moving ahead, the focus will be on the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level waiting for GDP data to find direction. A breakout of the actual support level may take the price toward 1.2600 followed by 1,2300.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

JPYUSD

Japan experienced a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in household spending during June, a sharper drop compared to the 4% decline recorded in May. This marked the fourth consecutive month of decline, as per official data.
Among household spending categories, food remained the largest expense, while the most significant reduction was observed in spending on furniture and household utensils, which decreased by 17.6% year-on-year.
Also, most officials from BOJ stressed the need to maintain the current monetary policy in place. At the same time, one member suggested that inflation would remain at 2% “in a sustainable and stable manner seems to have clearly come in sight.
USDJPY came back on Friday towards the 141.50 support level but bounced back up bullishly as the dollar is strong. The next target will be to reach 144.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The US Dollar found support in the hawkish remarks made by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman, along with the rise in US Treasury bond yields. Speaking at an event in Atlanta on Monday, Bowman mentioned, "I will be monitoring evidence of a consistent and meaningful decrease in inflation as I assess the need for potential further increases in the federal funds rate and the duration that the federal funds rate should remain at a suitably restrictive level."
Based on the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, approximately 86.5% of market participants anticipate that the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates in September. Investors still hold optimism for a final Fed rate hike within the year, pending the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States on Thursday to validate any expectations of a forthcoming Fed rate increase. The renewed demand for the US Dollar caused a decline in the price of gold, pushing it toward multi-month lows.
Although the US10Y yield is decreasing, which could potentially benefit gold, at present, the dollar holds a more favorable position.
Gold reached historically significant support in 1930 and has been hovering around this level, waiting for today's important US labor market data to determine its direction. If it breaks below the current support, it could head toward the 1920 support level. The 200MA (200-day moving average) serves as the primary resistance level to monitoring.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European stocks saw a decline on Tuesday due to pressure on Italian banks following the approval of a 40% windfall tax by the cabinet. Additionally, there were negative impacts from Germany's sticky inflation data and weak trade numbers from China, which dampened risk sentiment.
Italian banks like Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) and UniCredit (UCG) experienced over a 5% decrease, prompted by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's announcement that the new levy on banks' excess profits would fund various initiatives, including reducing the tax burden, implementing tax cuts, and offering financial aid to first-home mortgage holders.
Italy's FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB), which heavily relies on banking, slid by 1.4%, while European banks (.SX7P) suffered a 1.8% drop in response to Moody's credit rating cuts for several smaller to mid-sized U.S. banks. Moody's also indicated potential downgrades for major US lenders.
Germany's DAX index (DAX) experienced a 0.4% decline after data revealed that inflation had eased to 6.5% in July, aligning with economists' predictions.
China-linked mining and automotive companies (.SXPP and .SXAP) saw a decrease as imports and exports in the second-largest global economy fell significantly in July, putting pressure on Beijing to consider additional stimulus to sustain growth prospects.
Global miner Glencore's shares (GLEN) slumped by nearly 3% after reporting a 50% reduction in earnings for the first half of the year.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) matched the market consensus at 6.5%, while the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved from -22.5 in July to -18.9 in August, aligning with the expected -23.4. Moody's downgraded credit ratings for small to mid-sized US banks, warning of possible cuts to larger institutions due to increased recession risk from higher interest rates. This pressure urges adjustments in finance and real estate after the pandemic. Additionally, sluggish economic rebound and subdued global demand reflect in US trade data. With mostly dovish comments from Fed officials, attention shifts to the upcoming US inflation report as the central bank watches price data until the September policy meeting.
The EUR/USD price action indicates a double bottom, suggesting uncertainty regarding the current level and a clustering of prices at this point. The upcoming support levels are situated at 1.0920 and 1.0850. Furthermore, the 100MA on the daily chart is providing support at the present levels.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

The potential for further appreciation of the pound sterling (GBP) appears limited due to the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates. This move is putting additional strain on various sectors in the United Kingdom, such as housing, employment, and manufacturing. The GBP/USD pair is facing downward pressure because BoE policymakers are indicating the possibility of more tightening measures to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
The UK manufacturing sector in June will face close examination. The performance of British factories and the preliminary GDP for the April-June quarter will be closely monitored due to the strict policy environment. Observers are curious about whether the economy can steer clear of a recession. In the meantime, reports from the BoE Pill and the National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) suggest that UK PM Rishi Sunak will indeed deliver on his commitment to reduce inflation to 5% by the close of 2023.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level waiting for GDP data to find direction. A breakout of the actual support level may take the price toward 1.2600 followed by 1,2300.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

The improvement in China's factory-gate inflation, along with positive news from the Biden Administration, has eased market pessimism and given a break to buyers of the yen pair. Previously, negative factors like Italy's surprise tax on bank profits, downgrades of US banks, UK recession fears, and China's economic slowdown weighed on sentiment, affecting USD/JPY. Additionally, concerns about US and Japanese Treasury bond yields, tensions between Japan, China, and the US, as well as the Bank of Japan's easy-money policy impact the USD/JPY pair. The ongoing low bond yields and the weakened US Dollar Index contribute to these dynamics. Looking ahead, the pair might consolidate gains ahead of key economic data releases.
USDJPY is influenced by the ongoing dollar correction, with the median line on the extended bullish trend serving as noticeable resistance, particularly evident on the daily chart.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

The improvement in China's Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures factory-gate inflation, along with positive news from the Biden Administration reported by Bloomberg, has helped counter the market's previous pessimism. Despite the downbeat China Consumer Price Index (CPI), these factors have contributed to a more positive outlook.
However, Italy's unexpected imposition of a tax on bank windfall profits and the global rating agencies' downward revision of US banks and financial institutions negatively impacted sentiment on Tuesday. This led to a decrease in the gold price, pushing it closer to the lowest point for the month. Additionally, concerns about a potential UK recession and China's slowing economic growth, along with geopolitical tensions between Beijing, Japan, and the US, have further contributed to the overall sentiment.
Looking ahead, the absence of significant data or events might lead gold traders to consolidate their weekly losses before the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released on Thursday. Depending on whether the US inflation data suggests a reduction in price pressure, there is a possibility that the XAU/USD (gold to US dollar) pair could see an extension of its recent rebound.
Gold continues to decline, following a bearish trend where the price is trading above the median line. The median line has been acting as a support level for the past three instances of lower lows in price movements.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

European shares rose on Wednesday, with Italian lenders rebounding from sharp losses in the previous session after the government eased its stance on a new banking levy.
Eurozone bank stocks (SX7E) rebounded by 1.4% following a 3.5% decline the previous day. This uptick was due to Italy's decision to limit the new tax to 0.1% of total bank assets, in contrast to the initial surprise announcement of a 40% windfall tax that had triggered a sell-off.
Italian financial institutions like Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP), Banco BPM (BAMI), and UniCredit (UCG) experienced gains ranging from 1.7% to 2.5%.
Investors seemed to overlook data indicating deflation in China's consumer sector and continued declines in factory-gate prices for July. Despite these indicators, the world's second-largest economy struggled to reignite demand.
Regarding specific stocks, Delivery Hero (DHER) saw a 5.8% increase as the German online food delivery company raised its full-year revenue projection.
Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B) inched up by 0.5%, extending its momentum from Tuesday when the Danish pharmaceutical company's shares reached a record high. This surge followed news that its obesity drug reduced the risk of heart disease.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

Market participants are waiting for the US Producer Price Index (PPI). The Eurozone's inflation remains high, impacting growth and inflation prospects. Economists don't expect the 2.0% inflation target to be met until 2025, and rate cuts are unlikely before Q2 2024. In the US, Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%, while Core CPI fell to 4.7%. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected. The US Dollar's response to this data affected the Euro.
The Fed’s Mary C. Daly suggested it's too early to predict rate changes. Eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey.
The EUR/USD has entered a price range between the support at 1.0940 and the resistance level of 1.1040. The current price action might suggest a potential reversal based on the formed price pattern.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

On the other side of the globe, the UK economy experienced an unexpected growth of 0.2% in Q2 2023, a surprise that caught economists off guard. This growth has positioned the Bank of England (BoE) to consider further interest rate hikes. However, unlike other major advanced economies like Germany, France, Italy, and the US, the UK has yet to fully recover its pre-COVID late-2019 level. Notably, manufacturing and business investment saw remarkable growth in Q2, the manufacturing sector marking its strongest quarter since early 2019. Despite this positive momentum, the UK economy still lags behind by 0.2% from its late 2019 level. Economists foresee potential challenges ahead that might lead to a mild recession later in the year despite recent resilience.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and forming a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be again 1.2650.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

The 10-year Treasury bond yields in the US and Japan have decreased, indicating a lack of confidence in central bankers' statements about nearing peak interest rates. US inflation data for July was in line with expectations, but yearly inflation accelerated more than anticipated. Federal Reserve policymakers' comments on inflation were mixed, leading to negative market sentiment. China's decision to allow local governments to raise funds through bond sales boosted market confidence in its economy. Concerns about geopolitical tensions between the West and China weighed on sentiment, supporting the USD/JPY price. Japanese officials are supporting an easy-money policy to bolster the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming US Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Consumer Inflation Expectations will impact the USD/JPY direction.
As expected, USDJPY reached the 145.00 resistance level. A potential intervention in the market by the Japanese central bank and official authorities might be necessary to prevent the yen from declining further. A breach of the current resistance level could lead to the 146.00 resistance level, while a retracement from the existing resistance level could drive the price towards the 144.00 support level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

The unimpressive inflation data in the US provided a reason for Fed policymakers to celebrate their victory over price pressures. Meanwhile, Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), defended the recent pause in monetary policy by expressing concerns about potential higher unemployment rates. Additionally, recent Reuters polls indicate that both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in upcoming monetary policy meetings.
In another context, the sustained defense of the Yuan by Chinese policymakers has boosted market confidence in Asia's ability to overcome economic concerns. This has contributed to a sense of cautious optimism and supported the Gold Price.
It's important to mention that the light economic calendar and the cautious sentiment ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are also impacting Gold buyers' decisions. These factors are influencing the market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting minutes scheduled for next week.
Gold is continuing its bearish trend and is currently awaiting today's PPI data to provide further direction. The next support level is around the 1900 area, which represents a significant confluence point.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

European shares opened lower on Friday following a Wall Street rally driven by mild inflation data that lost momentum. However, better-than-expected earnings pushed the benchmark STOXX 600 towards modest weekly gains.
Wall Street's main indexes ended almost unchanged on Thursday, having surged up to 1% during the session. This rally came in response to data indicating moderate growth in U.S. consumer prices for July, a factor that might influence the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the coming month. Nonetheless, both U.S. and European bond yields continued to rise, putting pressure on equities.
The UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) dropped by 0.6% as the pound gained ground. This movement followed official data revealing unexpected growth in Britain's economy for the second quarter.
In terms of individual stocks, UBS, Switzerland's largest bank (UBSG), saw a 4.2% increase. This rise came after the bank announced it no longer required the public liquidity backstop, which was established as part of its state-sponsored acquisition of Credit Suisse.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The DXY is testing July's highs around 103.50, boosted by higher US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment. The 10-year yield has climbed to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield hovers just below 5%. US data showed a mixed performance, and on Thursday, we expect the release of Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed report.
According to the FOMC minutes, two members advocated for maintaining rates during the July meeting, despite the central bank's decision to raise rates to 5.25% - 5.50%, the highest since 2001. Some FOMC participants voiced concerns about the potential consequences of further tightening. Overall, the message seems to align with the Fed's intention to keep rates steady in the upcoming gatherings. Subsequent to the release of the minutes, the US Dollar resumed its upward momentum.
Although the US Dollar has risen consecutively for several days, its momentum remains robust. The deterioration of market sentiment also contributes to the increased demand for the Greenback. If this trend persists, it could lead to additional losses for the EUR/USD pair.
The EURUSD is heading towards its initial support at 1.0850, followed by 1.0800 where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish long channel can be found.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The USD Index (DXY) has surged to its highest level since June 12, buoyed by a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and a strong US economy. Despite mixed views on rate hikes among policymakers, the focus remains on inflation control. Strong incoming US macro data suggests a potential 25 basis points increase later in the year, driving the 10-year government bond yield to its highest since 2008 and benefiting the US Dollar. Equities' weaker sentiment enhances the dollar's safe-haven status, pressuring the GBP/USD pair. China's economic concerns compound recession fears.
Conversely, the GBP/USD's downside pressure appears cushioned due to the growing acceptance of an upcoming UK central bank rate hike in September. Reinforced by strong wage growth, positive GDP, and slightly elevated CPI figures, the Bank of England's tightening policy is expected to continue. Caution is advised, awaiting clear signs of a sustained rebound from the 100-day Simple Moving Average around 1.2615. Market attention shifts to US indicators, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, alongside US bond yield movements, impacting the USD and offering guidance for the GBP/USD pair.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level, forming a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJYP

The USD/JPY pair surged to a YTD high of 146.55 but struggled due to concerns about potential Yen protection by Japanese policymakers. This was balanced by a mix of risk aversion and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which boosted the major currency pair. Global market sentiment soured as traders worried about the Fed's leaning towards a hawkish bias amidst ongoing economic challenges. China's economic and geopolitical issues, along with inconsistent US data, added to the negative sentiment. The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed discussions on inflation and a preference for addressing persistent inflation, contributing to the hawkish view. Moreover, concerns grew over China's housing market decline and potential bond crisis. S&P 500 futures hit a five-week low, mirroring Wall Street's losses, while US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose significantly, raising economic slowdown concerns and supporting the US Dollar. Mixed Japanese data and strong US figures also influenced USD/JPY. The future USD/JPY direction hinges on risk developments amid a light calendar.
The price is finding a resistance level right now at the upper parallel of the long bullish channel at the 146.50 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The price of gold (XAU/USD) has hit a five-month low at around $1,890, then stabilized, as investors search for signals to continue the recent decline. This drop is influenced by concerns from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and cautious market sentiment. Worries about China's economic slowdown and weaker growth in developed countries, combined with stronger US economic data, are pushing up US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. These factors are pressuring the XAU/USD. Notably, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have surged to about 4.29%, the highest since October 2022. This elevated bond yield has previously led to concerns about economic slowdown and negatively impacted riskier assets, while also supporting the US Dollar. Additionally, negative economic forecasts from Fitch Ratings are also contributing to the downward pressure on both sentiment and the price of gold.
Although the lack of major events/data might allow gold prices to stabilize at their recent low, the prevailing risk aversion sentiment and higher yields could keep the US Dollar strong. This could prompt a rebound in XAU/USD unless there is significant positive news/data that weakens the US Dollar and boosts market sentiment.
As gold broke the 1900 confluence point, the next target will be around the 1875 support, followed by the 1845 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks declined on Thursday, influenced by BAE Systems' drop following its agreement to acquire Ball Corp's aerospace division. Furthermore, apprehensions about prolonged elevated interest rates were ignited by the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July gathering.
BAE Systems experienced a 3.2% decline after the largest defense firm in Britain revealed its $5.55 billion cash purchase of Ball Corp's aerospace assets.
The aerospace and defense sector of Europe (.SXPARO) encountered a 1.2% decline.
Following a decrease in markets on the previous day due to the divergence of opinions among Fed officials regarding the necessity for more interest rate increases, Wall Street futures exhibited a mixed trend.
Bond yields surged across Europe, especially in Italy and Germany (DE10YT=RR), which applied pressure on the equity market.
Dutch insurer Aegon (AGN) witnessed a 4.7% slump after reporting its first-half results.
In Norway, stocks (OSEAX) dwindled by 0.6% in anticipation of the central bank's verdict on interest rates.
DAX continues the selloff, and the next support level is around the 15500-15400 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

China's economic focus today is on the PBoC's 10 basis point reduction in the one-year loan prime rate, deviating from the anticipated 15 basis point decrease for both one-year and five-year rates. To alleviate market concerns, China must implement a substantial stimulus, potentially impacting the EUR/USD negatively. German producer prices fell due to weak demand and competitive order attraction, influencing inflation and escalating recession risks. The direction of the EUR/USD pair depends on the ECB's stance and upcoming PMI data. With no significant US indicators, attention turns to Fed communication, especially surrounding the Jackson Hole Symposium. Market risk sentiment and the dollar's safe-haven demand are crucial considerations.
The EURUSD is approaching its initial support at 1.0850, followed by 1.0800, where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish long channel can be found. A possible reversal may occur if the data supports it.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

In July, retail sales, including auto fuel, dropped by 1.2%, defying expectations of a 0.6% decrease. Sales excluding auto fuel also fell by 1.4%, missing the projected 0.7% drop. This contrasts with the trend of surpassing expectations seen in the past four months.
Despite weak sales, the Bank of England's stance wasn't significantly affected. Market sentiment dipped only 2 basis points to 31 bps for the September meeting. This contrasts with the recent 10 bps spike following positive employment and inflation reports.
Unfavorable weather, with the sixth highest July rainfall on record, might have contributed to the retail sales dip. The dampened consumer activity could explain it.
Looking ahead, optimism exists for August due to factors like England's Women’s Football World Cup advancement boosting spending enthusiasm, and back-to-school shopping likely boosting retail sales.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and formed a reversal pattern while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is hovering within a narrow range just below the mid-145.00s as it enters the early Asian session on Monday. Traders are opting to remain cautious due to a risk-averse sentiment, awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Prior to that, they are also anticipating PMI data from both the US and Japan. Currently, the major pair is trading near 145.43, showing a slight gain of 0.03% for the day.
Simultaneously, traders are monitoring the potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), with the Japanese government possibly stepping in to prevent a stronger Japanese Yen. Nonetheless, the primary factor driving the yen's depreciation is the monetary policy disparity between the US and Japan.
The pair found the expected support at the 144.80 level, transforming it from a previous resistance into a new support. The upper parallel of the bullish channel is likely to continue acting as a resistance level. A potential intervention could trigger a significant selloff, possibly surpassing an average of 300 pips daily.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) remains subdued at its lowest point in five months as investors turn to the US Dollar amidst uncertainty before significant data/events this week. The downward pressure on XAU/USD is also influenced by concerns about China, a major commodity consumer. Despite China's efforts to restore investor confidence, worries about its economic health continue to hamper gold price gains. Geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, the People’s Bank of China maintaining its five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), and positive US Treasury bond yields contribute to the gold price decline. Nonetheless, uncertainty about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s monetary policy stance and anticipation of August's Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), US Durable Goods Orders, and central bankers' speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium prevent a further drop in gold price.
The market is currently in a holding pattern, anticipating developments in data and events. The upcoming support level is projected to be around 1875, followed by the 1845 mark. This comes after gold's breach of the 1900 confluence point, while the dollar remains robust, potentially extending the bearish momentum.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks gained ground on Monday, with energy shares rising alongside global oil prices, and healthcare stocks receiving a boost from Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk's strong performance.
Energy stocks (.SXEP) climbed by 1% as crude prices surged due to decreased exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia, countering concerns about demand growth amidst high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Europe's healthcare index (.SXDP) advanced by 0.6%, fueled by a 1.3% rise in Novo Nordisk's shares after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the company.
Despite official data showing a larger-than-expected drop in German producer prices for July, Germany's DAX index added 0.4% during early trading.
Investor attention this week will be directed towards the Jackson Hole Symposium, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are anticipated to offer insights into the future interest rate landscape.
In terms of individual stocks, Adyen's shares fell by 4.6% following downgrades by two brokerages for the Dutch digital payments firm.
DAX continues the selloff, and the next support level is around the 15500-15400 level.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

​

EURUSD

Despite gloomy PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany last Wednesday, the pair remained resilient, fostering caution among investors seeking cues about inflation. The Eurozone's August preliminary HCOB Composite PMI fell to 47, missing the expected 48.5 and the prior 48.6. Germany's Composite PMI also dropped to 44.7, below the anticipated 48.3 and July's 48.5.
Conversely, the US released softer-than-expected preliminary PMI data the same day. The August S&P Global Composite PMI slid to 50.4 from the previous 52, exerting pressure on US Treasury yields and reinforcing USD correction.
Despite predictions of the ECB holding interest rates due to modest GDP and inflation data the prior week, the EUR/USD faces upward pressure. Lackluster US economic data reduced the chances of a September US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), comparing USD against six major currencies, hovers around 103.40. Investors await insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde during Friday's Jackson Hole symposium for strategy cues in response to the inflationary outlook. Market players will also watch US Initial Jobless Claims and Eurozone GDP for EUR/USD trading cues.
The EURUSD rebounded from the 1.0800 level, where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish channel acted as confluence support. The upcoming target is the 1.0940 resistance level, coinciding with the 100MA on the 4H timeframe and the upper parallel of the descending channel.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure due to disappointing UK preliminary PMI data, falling below expectations. The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for August declined to 47.9 from 50.8, weaker than the expected 50.3, marking the first sub-50 reading since January. Similarly, US PMIs also missed consensus, aiding the GBP/USD recovery from the previous day's losses. The Greenback was pressured as US Treasury yields fell on weaker economic data.
August's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47, below the expected 49.3 and prior 49. The S&P Global Services PMI fell to 51 from 52.3, missing the expected 52.2. Weaker PMIs from both nations hinted at an economic slowdown, reducing rate hike expectations in upcoming central bank meetings, prompting caution among traders seeking economic cues.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the dollar against major currencies, hovered near 103.40. Investors awaited the Jackson Hole symposium for Powell's speech. Traders monitored US Initial Jobless Claims and the UK's GfK Consumer Confidence for August, seeking insights into GBP/USD trends.
GBP/USD is forming a triple bottom reversal pattern and the next target towards the next resistance level at 1.2825, where a confluence point is forming with the 200MA.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Japan witnessed a rapid expansion in its business activities in August, primarily propelled by a strong surge in its service sector. This growth was indicated by a private survey conducted by au Jibun Bank. The country's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August exceeded the previous month's figure, reaching 52.6 compared to July's 52.2. However, Japan's manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the third consecutive month, with a reading of 49.0. In contrast, the service sector exhibited a more notable expansion, as its PMI climbed from 53.8 to 54.3.
In July, Japan's core inflation surprised on the positive side, with a year-on-year gain of 3.3%. This surpassed both June's reading of 3.0% and the consensus estimate of 2.9%. However, last week's data revealed a slight decrease in National Core CPI for July, dropping from 3.3% in June to 3.1%. Further inflation releases are awaited to determine the inflation trend. Nevertheless, the higher-than-expected BoJ core inflation release provided a boost to the Japanese yen.
Starting this Thursday, Fed Chair Powell will preside over the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors are especially eager to hear Powell's speech on Friday, as it is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate policies. Concurrently, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) seems ready to intervene and support the yen, which has been facing a decline. JP Morgan anticipates that intervention might be considered if the yen approaches the 150.00 level.
A double top reversal pattern on the USDJPY is forming. The next support is at the 145.00 level. Intervention from the BOJ is possible, and the selloff may lead toward more than 300-500 pips movement.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

Recent manufacturing surveys highlighted global economic challenges with worsening economic conditions in China. The US also presented dismal macro data, with business activity nearing stagnation in August. S&P Global's Composite US PMI dropped significantly to 50.4 from 52 in August, signaling concerns about a deeper global economic downturn. This influenced the safe haven gold price, which gained traction.
Additionally, reduced chances of tighter policies from the Federal Reserve (Fed) caused a pullback in the 10-year US government bond yield, supporting gold. Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's rate-hike timeline, possibly restraining aggressive bullish gold bets. The USD Index (DXY), reflecting the Greenback against various currencies, paused its decline from a two-month high. Any USD strength might cap the US Dollar-denominated gold price.
Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for insights on future rate hikes, influencing USD demand and the XAU/USD outlook.
Gold made the awaited reversal movement, breaking the 1919 level and heading toward the 1940 resistance level. The negative correlation with US yields is currently giving an advantage to gold.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

European shares reached one-week highs on Thursday. The surge was primarily driven by a 1.2% jump in tech stocks, spearheaded by chipmaker Nvidia. The company exceeded expectations with its quarterly revenue forecast and unveiled plans for a share buyback program.
The positive market sentiment was further fueled by easing bond yields across Europe. German bund yields, a regional benchmark, eased to 2.48%, leading to a 1.5% gain in rate-sensitive real estate stocks. European retailers rebounded by 0.6% following a previous session dip of over 1%.
As the focus shifts to the Jackson Hole central banks' meeting, where both ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are set to speak, traders remain divided on the possibility of ECB rate hikes. Symrise saw a 2.9% gain after Morgan Stanley upgraded the German flavor and fragrance maker, while Air Liquide rose 1.8% post an upgrade from Berenberg. Danish allergy treatment provider Alk-Abello surged 11.5% due to a nearly doubled year-on-year second-quarter operating profit. However, Britain's largest North Sea oil and gas producer, Harbour Energy, fell 1.0% after narrowing its annual production forecast range.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. The actual price action doesn't seem to be showing any clear direction, as the price has been in a range for the last 2 months.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at his annual address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, early on Friday, stated that central bank policymakers were attentive to signs suggesting that the economy might not be cooling as anticipated. This poses a dichotomy: while faster-than-expected economic growth benefits corporate earnings and leads to higher Treasury yields for valid reasons, the surge in yields places pressure on growth stocks, whose future earnings are evaluated against the risk-free Treasury rate, as well as on indebted companies that must refinance their obligations at elevated rates.
Christine Lagarde's recent lack of clarity on the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy direction has brought attention to a crucial week in the Eurozone. Although she acknowledged persistent inflation, she refrained from addressing the upcoming September 14 meeting, allowing room for public debate among colleagues regarding potential interest rate increases. The upcoming consumer-price data will set the stage for a significant decision, as officials assess whether further monetary tightening is necessary or if a weakening economic outlook warrants a pause.
Key factors in this decision include the Eurozone inflation numbers, particularly the core measure excluding volatile elements like energy. The service sector's relative strength compared to the struggling industry sector contributes to this nuanced inflation situation. ECB officials expressed varying views on the matter, with some advocating for rate increases and others suggesting a pause due to economic uncertainties. Overall, caution regarding inflation was evident, affecting Germany's short-term debt.
The EURUSD is breaking the confluence point of 1.0800 making a new lower low where the next target will be around the 1.0700 support level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair extended its decline last week following Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Summit. Powell expressed concerns about persistent high American inflation and hinted at a potential interest rate hike in September, which could take rates to 5.75%, the highest in over 23 years. This hike coincides with surging mortgage rates that have hit a two-decade peak.
Despite these challenges, positive indicators suggest a strong American economy. Unemployment stands at 3.7%, the lowest in over 50 years, with robust retail spending and a thriving housing sector. The Atlanta Fed predicts a 6% Q3 economic expansion, attributing it to growing construction projects, benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, and infrastructure bill.
Monday's muted GBP/USD activity, due to a UK bank holiday, directs investor attention toward upcoming American economic data. On Tuesday, the Conference Board releases the latest consumer confidence figures, expected to show a slight August dip. Additional data includes the house price index (HPI) and JOLTs job openings data. Later in the week, the US will unveil PCE and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
GBP/USD is breaking the 1.2600 support level where the next target will be 1,2400. The downtrend is healthy, and on a daily chart the pair broke the 100MA.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

USD/JPY bulls stall, causing the yen pair's first daily loss in three sessions around 146.30. Despite lacking strong downward momentum, it struggles to embrace China-driven risk-on sentiment due to anxiety about upcoming US employment and inflation data.
Mixed June Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index details from Japan influence USD/JPY traders.
China's move to halve the stock trading stamp duty bolsters sentiment and weighs on the US Dollar. The Wall Street Journal report highlighting Chairman Xi Jinping’s stimulus-leaning stance further impacts the market.
Beyond China's optimism, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s data-driven focus trims recent greenback gains before the Core PCE Price Index release and crucial US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cites slightly low Japanese inflation to support the current accommodative policy. Strong domestic demand and record profits also raise inflation concerns, strengthening the case for potential changes to the ultra-easy monetary policy after recent Yield Curve Control adjustments.
The dollar is outperforming the majors and is once again pushing the pair towards 147.00 The upper parallel of the bullish channel on the daily chart serves as the resistance level where the pair is currently being held.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) appears uncertain despite countering its bearish trend with the first positive weekly close in five weeks. This lack of movement could be attributed to market anxiety before significant US inflation and employment data releases this week. Despite the decline in US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar, and optimism tied to China's developments, XAU/USD doesn't respond positively.
Apart from pre-data caution, the gold price is affected by mixed statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Although many defended restrictive monetary policies, they refrained from suggesting further rate hikes. They emphasized data dependency for future decisions, implying a weakening stance among Fed hawks.
Furthermore, China's additional economic stimulus measures aim to boost activity, but concerns about US-China trade relations and a slower recovery in a major gold consumer nation.
Gold stooped at the 1922 level and is waiting for direction as this week we will have a great number of economic data. For gold to continue up the yields need to do a comeback. The next resistance level is at the 1940-45 area.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares opened higher on Monday, driven by gains in technology stocks and China-related automakers. This surge follows a positive closing on Wall Street and Beijing's move to support its struggling stock market. By 0710 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 (SXXP) had risen by 0.7%, marking its first weekly gain in four weeks.
Technology stocks (.SX8P) increased by 1.5%, rebounding after a three-session decline, mirroring the overnight rally in the US market. China's finance ministry revealed plans to reduce the 0.1% duty on stock trades, aimed at revitalizing the capital market and boosting investor confidence.
Sectors linked to China, including automakers (.SXAP) and industrials (.SXNP), saw gains of 1.1% and 1.0% respectively. Prominent luxury brands with exposure to China, such as LVMH (MC), Kering (KER), and Hermes (RMS), also witnessed gains exceeding 1% each.
In contrast, the euro zone's interest rate expectations remained subdued after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Notably, UK markets were closed due to a summer bank holiday.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. We entered a price range where the price is at support at 15500 and a resistance level at 16400. A breakout outside of those levels will determine more direction.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

GfK Institute's survey indicates a forthcoming decrease in German consumer sentiment for September. This projection results from diminishing income expectations and reduced inclination to make purchases, with the consumer sentiment index declining to -25.5 for September, down from August's slightly revised -24.6.
Later in the day, the focus shifts to US job openings. A minor decline could signal a potential slowdown in broader labor statistics due to be released on Friday.
Investors are still navigating the path of monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the possibility of further interest rate hikes if inflation remains below target. Powell emphasized the Fed's dedication to combating inflation, stating that although it has decreased from its peak, it remains elevated.
The EURUSD is currently breaking through the confluence point of 1.0800 and seems to have found temporary support at the 1.0780 level. It has created a new lower low, suggesting that the next target might be around the 1.0700 support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair is on a two-day gaining streak, trading around 1.2620 during Tuesday's Asian session. The cautious optimism in the market led to a decline in yields on US government bonds, contributing to the upward momentum of GBP/USD. Furthermore, remarks with a hawkish tone from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent during the Jackson Hole Symposium played a role in ending the Cable pair's four-day losing streak. Broadbent emphasized the need for policy rates to remain higher for an extended period. Investors are eagerly awaiting upcoming data releases from the US, which include JOLTS Job Openings, Housing Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. These datasets, set to be unveiled later in the day, are expected to offer valuable insights into the trajectory of the US economy.
GBP/USD is breaking the 1.2600 support level where the next target will be 1,2400. The downtrend is healthy and on a daily chart, the pair broke the 100MA.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

USD/JPY is under bearish pressure near 146.50, marking a 0.10% intraday drop in Tuesday's European session. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's shift in bias and Japan's inflation conditions. Yet, concerns about employment in Japan and cautious sentiment ahead of key data/events keep pushing the pair lower.
Unexpectedly, Japan's Unemployment Rate rose to 2.7% in July, exceeding the expected 2.5%, with the Jobs/Applicants Ratio sliding to 1.29 compared to the anticipated 1.30.
Recent reports from the Japanese government indicate a potential turning point in Japan's inflation after a 25-year deflation struggle. This supports a hawkish view on the Bank of Japan's policy.
Mixed details from Japan's June Coincident and Leading Economic Index, alongside BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium about inflation, are affecting the USD/JPY pair.
Weaker US Dollar and subdued yields are also impacting the pair's price, with US 10-year Treasury bond yields around 4.19% and the US Dollar Index at 103.85.
Goldman Sachs predicts USD/JPY to hit around 155.00 due to the US growth outlook and BoJ's stance on easy-money policy, a shift from their previous prediction of 135.00.
The focus is on upcoming Fed and BoJ monetary policies, along with risk factors, influencing USD/JPY ahead of the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for August, expected at 116.2 versus the prior 117.00.
The pair is fighting g at the 164.50 again showing resistance at that level. The upper parallel of the bullish channel on the daily chart serves as the resistance level while the actual pattern seems more bearish than bullish. We need more development from the yields and the dollar.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) is defending its previous weekly recovery, marking the first positive movement in five weeks. This ascent over the last two days is driven by a weakening US Dollar and a sense of cautious optimism in the market. Additionally, the decline in Treasury bond yields is contributing to the rebound.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's data dependency stance, coupled with a mix of recent US economic data. The pullback in US Treasury bond yields from the previous week's multi-year high is also supporting the DXY's performance.
In another context, the anticipation of further stimulus from China, both through fiscal and monetary policies, is sustaining hope among gold buyers.
However, a cautious sentiment prevails ahead of upcoming US inflation and employment indicators, as well as Chinese activity data. These factors are influencing XAU/USD bulls, particularly around the critical $1,940 resistance level.
To sum up, the gold price possesses several catalysts that favor potential upward movement. Yet, the outcome hinges on factors such as the resistance at $1,940, the broader weakness of the US Dollar, and the impact of downbeat yields. These elements will determine the extent of future advances in XAU/USD.
Gold made a moderate movement upside toward the 1926 level while the next resistance level is in 1931. For gold to continue up the yields need to do a comeback. The next solid resistance level is at the 1940-45 area.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares began Tuesday on a positive note, led by mining stocks benefiting from higher metal prices. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.6% by 0710 GMT, marking its highest point in a fortnight.
Mining stocks rallied 1.7% (SXPP) due to rising copper prices, propelled by a weaker dollar and supportive policies from China, a major consumer of metals.
In a brief announcement on Sunday, China's finance ministry revealed a reduction in the stock trade duty to 0.1%.
NN Group saw an impressive 8.4% surge as the Dutch insurer shared improved capital positions for the first half of 2023.
Early trading also witnessed a 1.7% leap in real-estate stocks (SX86P).
London's FTSE 100 rose by 1.3% as investors returned after a public holiday. British business supplier distributor Bunzl climbed 3.5% after revising its annual adjusted operating profit forecast.
Telecom Italia experienced a 2.3% rise following Milan's approval of two decrees allowing the economy ministry to acquire up to a 20% stake in the phone group's landline grid.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. We entered a price range where the price is at support at 15500 and a resistance level at 16400. A breakout outside of those levels will determine more direction.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD saw a surge on Tuesday, marking its largest daily gain in a month. It rose from below 1.0800 to around the 1.0900 range. This rally was primarily propelled by a significant correction in the US Dollar, triggered by unfavorable US economic data and a decrease in Treasury bonds.
On Tuesday, released data indicated that the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for September declined to -25.5, falling short of the expected -24.3. While this outcome was somewhat expected, it aligns with the current view of the German economy. Looking ahead, Wednesday will be crucial due to the release of preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from Spain and Germany. The annual German CPI rate is predicted to drop from 6.2% to 6% in August. Additionally, Eurostat will publish its Eurozone Business and Consumer Survey.
The main catalyst for the EUR/USD rally was the weakening US Dollar. The currency pair weakened in response to disappointing US employment data, including the JOLTS report, and lower-than-anticipated figures from the CB Consumer Confidence index. These releases led to a decline in US Treasury yields, exerting pressure on the US Dollar. The DXY index fell from 104.40, breaking the 103.50 level.
The EURUSD underwent a correction towards the confluence point of the 100MA and the upper parallel of the bearish channel. The pair's direction will rely on today's data to either continue its upward movement or revert to the bearish trend. A potential upside breakout would occur if we manage to surpass the 1.0900 level. Conversely, if the price retraces, the next support level to watch for would be around 1.0780.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.0900	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is maintaining its position on Wednesday, benefiting from an increased appetite for risk among market participants. The GBP/USD pair remains strong, supported by investor optimism that the policy gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) will close this year. Anticipating further interest rate hikes from the BoE, given the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data holding near its peak.
Amid the fight against persistent inflation, the UK's manufacturing sector and property market have taken significant hits. British businesses are still running below full capacity due to a bleak demand outlook, and elevated mortgage rates have compelled prospective homebuyers to delay their purchases. The BoE's Broadbent cautioned that despite subdued energy and fuel prices, inflation won't recede as swiftly as it initially appeared.
The GBP/USD underwent a minor correction towards the recent support zone around 1.2650, following a dollar selloff triggered by yesterday's data. However, the pair remains distant from any potential reversal indications. It is more likely to continue its movement towards the 1.2500 level, which appears to be the most probable scenario.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The Japanese Yen struggled on Monday and continued to face challenges until yesterday. However, lackluster US data supported a yen recovery. Insights from a former Bank of Japan (BoJ) official suggest that the BoJ is unlikely to intervene with the Yen unless USD/JPY surpasses 150.00. This, combined with Dollar strength during yesterday's European session, contributed to the rise of USD/JPY.
During the US session, the first set of US data for the week was released, including JOLTS job opening numbers and CB Consumer Confidence Data. Both of these figures fell well below estimates. As a result of this disappointing data, yen pairs retraced, providing a favorable situation for the yen.
BoJ Board Member Naoki Tamura's remarks are noteworthy. He indicated that the Central Bank might discontinue negative rates if the inflation goal is within reach. Tamura also clarified that even if the BOJ were to terminate negative rates, they wouldn't reduce monetary easing as long as they can maintain low interest rates. These comments could be contributing to the yen's weakness this morning as the European session approaches.
Market participants will closely monitor US data to gauge the likely stance of the Fed at the upcoming Central Bank meeting in September.
The pair found resistance at the 147.00 level and came back after US data that led to dollar weakness. The actual path is still bullish for USDJPY and the possibility for more advancement will be challenged by the 147.00 resistance level and upper parallel of the actual bullish channel.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

Gold price (XAU/USD) is struggling around $1,935 in early European trading on Wednesday. The weakened US dollar and a significant drop in US Treasury yields are pushing down the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down at 103.55, while the 10-year yield has fallen from 4.20% to 4.14%, close to its lowest point in two weeks.
Increasing tensions between the US and China could favor gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo expressed concerns during her four-day visit to Beijing, highlighting difficulties faced by American companies and national security issues. Talks also revolved around China's recent limitations on gallium and germanium exports. Observers are closely watching US-China relations for potential market impact.
Gold's potential gains might be limited due to expectations of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Chair Jerome Powell signaled openness to additional hikes at the Jackson Hole Symposium, pending incoming data. Markets now price in a 16% chance of a rate hike in the next meeting. This contributes to downward pressure on the USD.
Conversely, gold prices could rise on the back of China's stimulus measures. China plans to reduce the duty on stock trading and implement measures to boost confidence in listed companies, bolstering investor sentiment. As a key gold consumer, positive developments in China could cushion gold's decline.
The focus remains on US data, including private employment figures, Q2 GDP estimates, Chinese Manufacturing PMI, and US Nonfarm Payrolls later this week. These events may influence FX markets and provide clarity on gold's direction.
Gold continues the bullish movement and is finding resistance around the 1937 level. The possibility of more advancement is high and the next solid level of resistance could be around the 1945 level. The fall in Yields will help in achieving this target.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks started the day on a positive note on Wednesday. The insurance sector received a boost from Prudential's favorable results, while investors were eagerly awaiting additional data to assess the economic state of the region.
European insurers, including Prudential, saw a 0.7% rise. Prudential's shares climbed by 2.7% after the insurer, focused on Asia, reported higher operating profits for the first half of the year.
Direct Line Insurance Group shares also went up by 1%, as the British motor and home insurer announced the appointment of Adam Winslow, a senior executive at Aviva, as its new CEO.
In the energy sector, heavyweight stocks gained 0.4%, in line with the rise in crude oil prices. Basic resources saw an increase of nearly 1% during early trading.
Germany's DAX index grew by 0.2%, with an eye on the upcoming August inflation data. Spain's inflation figures and Eurozone consumer confidence data were also on the radar.
Among other notable stocks, Orsted experienced a significant drop of 11.8%. The world's leading offshore wind farm developer stated that it expects impairments of up to 5 billion Danish crowns ($729.78 million) on its U.S. portfolio.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. We entered a price range where the price is at support at 15500 and a resistance level at 16400. A breakout outside of those levels will determine more direction.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD climbed to two-week highs at 1.0947 before retracing slightly, yet it remains comfortably above 1.0900. The overall bias favors upside movement due to the US Dollar's corrective shift. Recent US data pressured the Greenback, while Eurozone inflation hints at potential European Central Bank (ECB) tightening.
Germany's annual inflation dipped from 6.2% to 6.1% in August, staying elevated. Spain's rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, expected, and core rate above 6%. Despite the downward trend, high inflation opens the ECB tightening possibility. August saw drops in consumer and business confidence. Eurozone Consumer Price Index data comes on Thursday.
US data, released Wednesday, showed lower-than-expected private payroll growth at 177,000, versus 195,000 consensus. Q2 GDP was also revised down, impacting the dollar's correction. More data is due: Core PCE Price Index and Jobless Claims on Thursday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
Despite weak data, US fundamentals outshine the Eurozone's, possibly capping EUR/USD upside.
The EURUSD continued to rise until 1.0947, where the 100MA daily acted as a resistance level. Today, the pair is awaiting data from both economies. The next resistance could be around 1.1000, and the support is at 1.0850.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent noted the potential for policy rates to remain restrictive due to the lasting impact of surging prices. He also highlighted the prospect of the Fed pausing its rate hikes in September, which could limit downside for GBP/USD. Recent underwhelming US data has bolstered the belief in a less hawkish US central bank, evident in investor sentiments. August's ADP report indicated a mere 177K job addition, far below the previous month's revised 324K. Additionally, the US Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 2.1% annually from an initial 2.4%. These factors suggest GBP/USD might trend upward, though traders await a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and the US Core PCE Price Index release to gauge short-term opportunities.
GBP/USD is profiting from the dollar sell-off and corrected toward the 1.2750 level and the resistance level is at the 1.2790 level. While the next support is at the 1.2650 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Markets are displaying caution as they anticipate the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which serves as the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s preferred measure of inflation.
In addition, Toyoaki Nakamura, a member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board, commented on Thursday that policymakers require more time for a gradual shift toward monetary tightening. This statement has rekindled concerns about BoJ's stance and is putting pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Turning to data, Japanese Retail Sales showed a notable increase of 6.8% YoY in July, surpassing the previous reading of 5.6% and outperforming the projected 5.4%. On a different note, the country's Industrial Production witnessed a decline of 2.0% MoM in July, reversing the 2.4% growth from the prior month. This drop contrasts with the market consensus, which had predicted a milder 1.4% decrease.
USDJPY corrected from the 147.00 resistance level and waiting for more developments in terms of data to find direction. The actual price action shows some reversal patterns but no confirmed signal.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

The US Dollar (USD) is hovering near a recent two-week low, prompted by disappointing US macro data released on Wednesday. This has become a driving force behind the rise in gold prices. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) revealed that US private sector employment only increased by 177K jobs in August, significantly lower than the revised 324K from the previous month and falling short of the 195K anticipated.
Additionally, the second estimate indicated that the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% in Q2, down from the initially reported 2.4% growth. The decline in the Consumer Confidence Index from 114.0 to 106.1 in August underscores expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will halt its rate hikes in September. This is causing pressure on US Treasury bond yields, weakening the USD and benefiting gold.
Concerns about a global economic downturn also contribute to the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. However, a positive market sentiment might temper further gold gains. Traders are likely to wait for the release of the US PCE Price Index, a crucial inflation measure for the Fed, which could influence expectations about the Fed's rate decisions. Currently, markets are anticipating a 25 basis points increase by the US central bank in 2023. Given this context, unless positive inflation data emerges, the outlook supports upward movement for XAU/USD.
The bullish momentum in gold continues, pushing the price towards a new high at the 1950 level. The pair is currently awaiting more data to confirm the ongoing bullish trend. The next target is set at 1965, while the support level remains at the 1935 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares opened higher on Thursday as financials received a boost from Swiss lender UBS's decision to absorb Credit Suisse's domestic bank. Investors are preparing for a barrage of key economic data scheduled for later in the day.
Shares of UBS Group (UBSG) surged 6.3%, reaching their highest level since late 2008 after the bank announced an increase in its cost savings target to more than $10 billion across the group.
The broader financial services index (.SXFP) gained 1.4%.
Investors will closely monitor a preliminary reading of Eurozone inflation, German unemployment data, and the US inflation figures. Additionally, policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled for next month.
Preliminary EU-harmonized official data revealed that French inflation accelerated more than anticipated in August.
Among other individual stocks, Pernod Ricard (RI) declined by 4.1% after the owner of Mumm champagne and Absolut vodka released its full-year results.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The euro is striving to recover the 1.08 level after being influenced by the latest US jobs data. Initial fluctuations in the forex market occurred on Friday as the US unemployment rate rose, weakening the US dollar. However, a subsequent announcement of better-than-expected job numbers caused a rapid 100 basis point drop in the exchange rate
The overall market outlook remains stable, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 1.0750 and 1.0950. Although sentiment is somewhat against the euro, it retains its core characteristics.
Today's highlight is President Christine Lagarde's speech, eagerly anticipated for any deviation from the ECB's recent aggressive tone, potentially impacting the euro's pressure.
The EURUSD found support at the 1.07720 level and made a double bottom in this area. The trend seems bearish and a breakout of the actual support level may take the price to the next support level at 1.0700.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The British Pound (GBP) is aiming for a significant recovery following a sharp decline, driven by growing concerns of a worsening economic downturn. The GBP/USD pair's recovery is precarious due to the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates, which is impacting UK manufacturing. British companies are focusing on stabilizing their profit margins and reducing cost pressures by reducing inventories and the workforce. In the future, passing on these cost savings to consumers could help alleviate inflationary pressures on households.
Despite the increasing worries about a recession, the BoE cannot halt its policy of tightening monetary measures because the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is nearing its highest level at 7.1%, and the drop in headline inflation is not as significant as the decline in energy prices. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt is confident that UK inflation, which was around 10% in January, will decrease by half by the end of the year.
GBP/USD is at the 1.2580 area support touching for the second time. The bearish trend continues and a breakout of the actual support will lead the price toward the next level at 1.2500.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2580	1.2500	1.2400

USDJPY

Earlier today, Japan's August Monetary Base data revealed a 1.2% year-on-year increase in liquidity, contrasting with the -1.3% prior figure. This aligns with market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will support Japanese Yen (JPY) buyers, despite caution due to the US holiday affecting bond markets.
Elsewhere, positive market sentiment is driven by China's stimulus efforts and hopes for no further US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. China's government established an entity to boost the private economy and remove barriers in the services sector. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly cut its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR) from 6.0% to 4.0%, effective from September 15. Chinese banks also reduced Yuan deposit interest rates, and China may take more steps to revive its property sector.
Reduced expectations of future Fed hawkishness, especially after a mixed US jobs report for August, support market optimism and weaken the USD/JPY.
US-China tensions and Moody's upward revision of US growth forecasts for 2023 weigh on USD/JPY amid a sluggish session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated, and US 10-year Treasury bond yields stand at 4.18%. Monday's US market holiday may limit USD/JPY performance, with attention on Japan's Q2 GDP and the US ISM Services PMI.
USDJPY as for other majors found support at 144.60 and coming back as JPY continues showing weakness. Continuing toward the 147.00 as resistance level continues to happen. The Dollar's strength or weakness will determine the next pair's direction.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) continues to rise, surpassing the early August swing high while maintaining support of around $1,936-38. This upward movement is driven by the weakening US Dollar, attributed to concerns over the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift and recent disappointing economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has halted its two-day winning streak, currently trading around 104.15.
Furthermore, China's efforts to support its economy have contributed to the XAU/USD's gains. China, a significant consumer of gold, has taken measures such as establishing a special entity to boost the private economy and reducing foreign exchange reserve requirements. Several Chinese banks have also lowered interest rates on Yuan deposits.
Additionally, the subdued performance of US Treasury bond yields in recent weeks reinforces the gold price's recovery, particularly as it holds above crucial technical support levels.
Looking ahead, a shortened trading week and US-China tensions may challenge gold buyers. However, the market focus will also be on key events like the US ISM Services PMI, China's inflation data, and potential stimulus announcements from Beijing, which could provide further opportunities for bullion traders.
Gold is currently trading around the $1950 area, where it has encountered resistance. The next target is set at $1965, while the support level remains at $1935. A correction in US yields is currently stopping gold, but any signs of a selloff could trigger a breakout for gold.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European equities are displaying optimism on Monday, following a relief rally in Asia triggered by Country Garden's agreement with creditors and expectations that China's economic stability measures will yield results.
In early trading, the pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (SXXP) reached a more than three-week high, currently up by 0.7%. The FTSE 100 (UK100), CAC 40 (PX1), and DAX (DAX) are all showing gains in the range of 0.5% to 0.6%. US cash markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, with futures showing modest early gains.
In the European market, basic resource shares (.SXPP) are the top performers, reaching their highest point in four weeks. Healthcare stocks (.SXDP) are approaching a three-month peak, with Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B) solidifying its position as Europe's largest listed company after launching its weight loss drug, Wegovy, in Britain.
The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD hit a recent low for the past three months but managed to stay above the 1.0700 level. The strength of the US dollar is supported by both US economic data and risk aversion sentiments. Meanwhile, Germany's industrial output continued its decline in July, which is a significant challenge for the largest economy in the Eurozone. There are concerns about the possibility of a recession as further industrial production figures for Germany are expected today.
In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations, giving a boost to the US dollar. Following this data release, the EUR/USD reached its lowest point at 1.0702 but later recovered slightly, reaching 1.0730. The overall economic performance of the United States remains a crucial factor in the strength of the US dollar, especially in the context of prevailing risk aversion. Additionally, there are upcoming data releases in the US, including Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Cost data, scheduled for Thursday.
The selling pressure on EUR/USD persists, even though the price stability around the 1.0700 area appears to be holding. The strength of the US dollar is the primary driver behind this downward movement in major currencies followed by recession fears in other western Economies. The next support levels to watch for are approximately 1.0670, followed by 1.0600, and the historical support is located at the 1.0500 area.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0600	1.0500

GBPUSD

The dollar remains in the lead against the pound, driven by the positive performance of the US ISM Services PMI in August, which exceeded expectations and reached a six-month high of 54.5. This data further underscores the strength of the US economy.
Conversely, the Pound Sterling (GBP) saw a decline due to the dovish comments made by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday. Bailey mentioned that the BoE is nearing the conclusion of its rate-hiking cycle, adding to concerns about a potential recession alongside persistent inflationary pressures, which are putting additional downward pressure on the pound.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

USDJPY

Kyodo News reported on Wednesday that the Japanese government plans to enact new economic stimulus measures in October, aiming to bolster company wage increases and reduce energy costs. Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker Junko Nakagawa supports maintaining an accommodating monetary policy, citing the nation's failure to achieve the BoJ's price target. The divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan may impact the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In disappointing economic news, Japanese Household Spending for July fell by 5.0% year-on-year, missing expectations and marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stresses the importance of closely monitoring foreign exchange movements while keeping all options open.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain interest rates above 5% for an extended period. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes there's room for rate increases, contingent on data, while Fed Boston President Susan Collins cautions against overly restrictive monetary policy.
US economic data indicates the ISM Services PMI for August surpassed expectations at 54.5, while the S&P Global Composite's final readings slipped slightly to 50.2. This led to the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching a six-month high above 105.00.
Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor Japanese Q2 GDP, July's Labor Cash Earnings, and Current Account data for trading cues in the USD/JPY pair.
The USD/JPY pair continues in the same bullish direction. The only scenario that seems more probable is as the Dollar is strong, we will reach the 150 historical level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

Gold price remains on the back foot for the fourth consecutive day even as the bears struggle to gain market acceptance ahead of the top-tier US data deepening global recession fears favoring US Dollar haven as developing economies are facing the wrath of higher interest rates from western central banks and potential upside risks of deflation to the Chinese economy.
US Yields also disfavoring gold attractiveness with US 10-year treasury yields reaching a 16-year high during the month, driven by speculation about a possible Fed reassessment of the US neutral rate.
Gold will be much influenced by this week's FED member speeches including more than 8 members where for the last 3 days the consensus seems divided between seeing the actual data signals a pause and others seeing more possibility of tightening until now playing negative for gold. Market pricing points to a strong likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.
Global gold ETFs experienced a third consecutive month of net outflows in August from the last monthly report of the World Gold Council.
Gold continues the selloff as the dollar and US yields lead the scene. The next support is at the 1910 level, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by the 1885 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European stocks experienced their seventh consecutive decline on Thursday, marking their lengthiest losing streak in over five years. This decline was attributed to two primary factors: concerns about a decelerating European economy and rising US interest rates.
Technology shares, particularly sensitive to interest rates, witnessed a nearly 1% drop as US Treasury yields surged following robust services sector data on Wednesday. This development raised worries that persistent inflation could result in prolonged higher interest rates.
In the coming weeks, market watchers will closely monitor monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve.
Adding to concerns about Europe's economic momentum, data revealed that German industrial production in July fell slightly more than anticipated.
However, there was a bright spot as shares of Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) soared by 14.1%. The British motor and home insurer expressed optimism by forecasting improved operating profit for 2024.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against various currencies, has retreated from its highest level since March 9. This pullback is driven by profit-taking among bullish traders ahead of the China inflation data and G20 leaders’ summit this weekend. Additionally, declining US Treasury bond yields and improved stability in equity markets have weakened the safe-haven appeal of the dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair. However, expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening policy further should support US bond yields and the USD.
Market sentiment suggests the possibility of another 25-bps rate hike by year-end, with the Fed expected to maintain higher interest rates. Recent data, such as the lower-than-expected US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and positive US ISM Services PMI, reinforce the view of a resilient US economy, allowing the Fed to remain hawkish. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) lacks clarity on rate hikes.
Differing ECB opinions, like Peter Kazimir's support for a September rate hike and Ignazio Visco's caution, could limit significant EUR/USD gains. German inflation in August eased to 6.4%, as reported by the federal statistics office, confirming preliminary data.
EURUSD is close to the 1.0650 support level, while the DXY 105.50 target seems achievable. The Dollar retreated marginally yesterday, but the bullish trend remains intact.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0650	1.0600

GBPUSD

On Thursday, the latest US employment data for September 1st showed Initial Jobless Claims at 216K, down from 229K previously, surpassing the expected increase of 234K. In Q2, US Unit Labor Costs rose to 2.2%, contrasting expectations of stability after the previous 1.6%. Despite this, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong, driven by a string of positive economic indicators. The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring its performance against six major currencies, now hovers around 104.90, though slightly below Thursday's peak since April.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with a potential 25 basis point (bps) hike in November or December. This hawkish approach bolsters the USD. Conversely, the belief that the Bank of England (BoE) nears the end of its policy tightening may weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair's upside potential.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its rate hikes, but he cautioned that borrowing costs could still rise due to persistent high inflation.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence. A temporary correction is happening but the big picture still bearish for the pair.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

JPYUSD

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened broadly due to a downward revision in second-quarter GDP growth, boosting the USD/JPY pair on the week's final day. Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.8% in April-June, down from the initial 6.0% estimate, revealing its fragility and ensuring the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy.
This, coupled with stability in equity markets, diminished the JPY's safe-haven appeal, supporting the USD/JPY pair. However, concerns persist that Japanese authorities may intervene in forex markets to bolster the JPY. BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa emphasized that FX moves should align with economic and financial fundamentals.
Additionally, a slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD) from its six-month peak limited the major's gains. The USD remains strong as markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher rates for an extended period, with a potential 25 bps increase in 2023. This contrasts with the BoJ's dovish stance, favoring an upward trajectory for USD/JPY. Consequently, any significant corrective decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially without relevant US data on Friday.
USDJPY continue the same bullish direction even if Dollar corrected yesterday. The only scenario that seems more probable is as the Dollar is strong, we will reach the 150 historical level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

Amid concerns about China's worsening economic conditions, Japan's second-quarter GDP growth has been revised downward, raising fears of a global economic downturn. Additionally, deteriorating US-China relations, as the world's two largest economies, are driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. China's recent directive prohibiting officials from using iPhones for work adds to the tension, following US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo's statement that US tariffs on China are unlikely to change until the US Treasury's review is complete.
These developments have left investors cautious, impacting equity markets. Furthermore, a weaker US Dollar is supporting gold prices as traders reduce their USD bullish positions. However, the Federal Reserve's commitment to a hawkish stance and maintaining higher interest rates may limit gold's upside potential.
Strong US macroeconomic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Jobless Claims, suggests a resilient economy and supports the Fed's tightening policies, which could restrain US bond yields and the USD. Market participants are also awaiting China's inflation data and the G20 summit, adding uncertainty.
Gold found support at the 100MA on the 4-hour chart as the Dollar retraced back yesterday, but the general view is still bearish for Gold. The next support is at 1910, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by 1885.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European stocks experienced a slight uptick on Friday as investors turned their attention to previously struggling luxury and technology shares. This shift came in response to a range of concerns that had affected market sentiment throughout the week, including the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates and a slowing European economy.
French luxury powerhouse LVMH saw a 0.7% rise in its stock price, recovering from earlier declines that had been driven by worries about China's economic growth.
STMicroelectronics (STM.MI) also saw a modest 0.3% increase in its stock value, bouncing back from concerns related to a chip market downturn and potential restrictions on Apple's iPhones in China.
While there was some improvement in market sentiment on Friday, the STOXX 600 was still on track for a weekly loss of approximately 0.7%. This was due to ongoing concerns about the possibility of a European economic recession and the expectation of sustained high U.S. interest rates.

Additionally, Saipem (SPM), the Italian energy services group, experienced a 1.9% increase in its stock price following the announcement of new offshore contracts valued at 850 million euros ($910.18 million).
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is increasingly confident that the US can tame inflation without harming the labor market, citing the stabilization of inflation indicators and the absence of widespread layoffs.
Positive US economic data supports the idea of persistently higher interest rates. Markets currently anticipate a 93% likelihood of no rate change in September and a 43.5% chance of a rate hike in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and constrain EUR/USD gains.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggests that there is room to raise interest rates but emphasizes that data will guide decisions. Fed Boston President Susan Collins highlights the risks of an overly restrictive monetary policy, advocating for a cautious yet deliberate approach. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee outlines the central bank's aim to manage inflation without triggering a recession.
Regarding the euro, analysts anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Recent data reveals stable German Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) figures and modest Eurozone GDP growth in Q2.
This week, the focus shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August and the ECB's policy decision, both influencing the EUR/USD pair's direction.
EURUSD corrected after touching the support level around 1.0680. The level of 1.0750 is now acting as resistance, hindering further advancement towards 1.0780, followed by 1.0850. However, the long, strong bearish trend remains intact.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0650	1.0600

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has made a strong recovery, with bearish market sentiment easing, although there is still a lingering sense of vulnerability. The GBP/USD pair has swiftly bounced back in anticipation of the United Kingdom's July Employment report, which will provide insights into the current labor market conditions. Investors will closely monitor wage growth momentum, as it continues to be a significant factor contributing to stubborn inflationary pressure.
The release of the UK's labor data will also assess the effectiveness of the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy tools in a high-inflation environment. Additionally, investors will be keenly interested in comments from BoE policymakers to gauge how close current interest rates are to their peak. Sluggish wage growth and limited recruitment levels are expected to alleviate some of the pressure on BoE policymakers.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence. A temporary correction is happening but the big picture is still bearish for the pair.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

JPYUSD

Comments made by Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting that the BOJ might gather sufficient data by the end of the year to determine the possibility of ending negative interest rates have strengthened the yen. Given that the currency is currently nearing a historic low on a trade-weighted basis, there is certainly room for further appreciation.
However, it's important to recognize that the yen's weakness stems not only from extremely low-interest rates but also from yield curve control measures and the substantial bond purchases necessary to maintain that control, which have exerted downward pressure on the yen.
While higher interest rates could support the yen, it's likely that interest rates in Japan will remain significantly lower than those in other major economies. To merely match Taiwan's interest rates, for instance, Japanese rates would need to increase by approximately 2%, and it's highly improbable that Japanese interest rates will rise to a level that alters the yen's status as the preferred funding currency.
If interest rates alone were to change, it might not be long before the yen resumes its long-term decline. Conversely, discontinuing bond purchases could trigger substantial shifts in portfolios, particularly in Japan, where investors wield considerable influence in global markets. Such changes could potentially establish a long-term low in the yen's value.
USDJPY coming back toward the 146.00 support level whereas the down parallel of the bullish trend helps support the price. The bullish long trend is still strong and the next level at 150 is the next target.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

The price of gold is currently trading at approximately $1,930 per troy ounce, showing a rebound from the losses seen in the previous week. This recovery is attributed to a weakening US Dollar (USD), which reduces the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining unchanged interest rates in the upcoming September meeting.
However, 10-year US Treasury bond yields have risen to 4.30%, an increase of 0.84% at the time of writing. Despite this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing ground during the Asian session on Monday. The spot price for gold is around 104.60.
The Greenback is expected to remain resilient due to consistent positive economic data from the United States (US). Investors will closely watch the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US on Wednesday, which could offer insights into the country's inflation situation.
Investors are also anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the Fed in either November or December, with expectations of sustained elevated interest rates. This hawkish stance could further support gold.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the US's ability to control inflation without harming employment, while Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee discussed the Fed's goal of achieving stable economic growth with decreasing inflation.
Additionally, gold may have been impacted by China's weaker-than-expected August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the ongoing challenges faced by Chinese authorities in achieving their 5% GDP growth target for the year.
Gold found support at the 100MA on the 4-hour chart as the Dollar retraced back yesterday, but the general view is still bearish for gold. The next support level is at 1910, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by 1885.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European stocks reached a one-week high on Monday, driven by data suggesting a stabilization in the Chinese economy. Traders are preparing for a busy week, focusing on the crucial US inflation report and the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting.
Italian stocks (FTSEMIB) led the gains among European markets, climbing 0.8%, while the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.4%.
In the sector-specific focus, the mining index (.SXPP) surged by 2.4% as metal prices increased on the expectation of improved demand from China, a major consumer.
Positive inflation data and additional stimulus measures from Beijing contributed to the perception that China, the world's second-largest economy, was stabilizing.
Investors are eagerly anticipating Wednesday's US inflation data, which will influence global interest rates. Additionally, market participants foresee a 60% chance that the ECB will maintain its interest rates on Thursday, according to LSEG data.
Deutsche Bank strategists noted, "Our economists have nervously maintained their 3.75% terminal deposit rate forecast for many months, and therefore, they believe the ECB will stay on hold." However, they added that even if there's no hike this week, it shouldn't be interpreted as a signal of confidence that this is the last hike. European inflation remains uncertain, and GDP growth has been stagnant since last autumn.
Investors will closely follow commentary from ECB officials throughout the week to solidify their expectations regarding the central bank's interest rate path.
Regarding individual stocks, Covestro (1COV) rose 3.2% after the German chemicals firm engaged in discussions with suitor Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) regarding a takeover approach.

Vistry Group (VTY) was the top gainer among individual stocks, surging by 13.3%, following its announcement of merging its affordable-housing business 'Partnerships' with its Housebuilding operations.
Conversely, Alfa Laval (ALFA) declined by 2.6% after Citi downgraded the Swedish engineering group's rating to "Neutral" from "Buy," citing an expected slowdown in order growth affecting earnings.
Lastly, ratings agency Fitch will review Germany's long-term credit rating on Friday. Currently, Germany holds an 'AAA' rating with a stable outlook, making it Europe's largest economy.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, DAX went back toward the 15600 level after finding resistance at the 16000.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

Asia's Stock Fluctuations, European Optimism, and Key Economic Events Ahead

Stocks in Asia fluctuated and Chinese shares were back in the red. Gains triggered by news on Country Garden Holdings Co. — which secured payment extension approval from its bondholders — were not enough to keep the positive sentiment going for long.
European stock markets are poised to open higher on Tuesday, extending the positive momentum from the previous session. This comes as we enter a busy week for economic data.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp saw a 1.6% increase in its shares following a deal between Apple and Qualcomm. Qualcomm will supply 5G chips to Apple until at least 2026.
TSMC is a manufacturer of both Qualcomm's chips and Apple's chips, which power its devices.
Bank of Japan boss Kazuo Ueda's weekend comments that the end of stimulus is possible during 2023 is still reverberating in the local bond market, with the benchmark 10-year yield pushing to a new near-decade peak.
In the May to June period, the UK unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%, in line with expectations.
The annual growth in employees' average total pay, including bonuses, reached 8.5%, influenced by one-off payments in June and July 2023 from the NHS and Civil Service.
Notably, annual growth in pay, excluding bonuses, remained stable at 7.8%, marking a record high. Overnight, BOE uber-hawk Catherine Mann warned it's too soon to stop raising rates.
Germany’s economic recovery is in the spotlight as well with the release of the ZEW survey, with sentiment likely weighed down by tighter monetary conditions.
The focus shifts to US inflation data, with the consumer price index figures scheduled for Wednesday and the producer price index for Thursday.
Additionally, China will release a plethora of data on Friday, encompassing house prices, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment.

EURUSD

US Treasury Yields Surge as Fed Tightening Looms
The potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policies further is supporting higher US Treasury bond yields. This, combined with a cautious market sentiment, is boosting demand for the safe-haven USD.
The US central bank is expected to pause its rate-hike cycle during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 19-20. However, there is still the possibility of additional rate hikes later this year due to a resilient US economy and slow inflation reduction. The focus will be on the US CPI report released on Wednesday, which will offer insights into the Fed's future rate hike plans. If inflation remains stubborn, it could lead to a 25-bps increase in November, fueling the recent USD rally.
The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is also eagerly awaited, with uncertainty about whether they will continue hiking interest rates or pause amid a challenging Eurozone economic outlook. Additionally, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report and USD price movements on Tuesday will influence short-term trading opportunities.
Given this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair appears biased towards the downside. However, traders are likely to exercise caution ahead of key data and central bank events, hesitating to take aggressive positions until there is clarity on the continuation of the downtrend initiated from the 1.1275 region reached in July.
EURUSD, after yesterday's temporary correction, continues today in the bearish direction towards the last support in the 1.0650 region. Similarly, the DXY is also showing an inverse picture, moving towards the next resistance at 105.50.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0650	1.0600

GBPUSD

GBP/USD Bears Persist as Fed Hints at Rate Halt
The US central bank is expected to halt rate hikes in September, but there's still a chance of one more 25 bps increase this year. Upbeat US macro data last week reinforced these expectations due to a resilient economy and lingering inflation. This hawkish outlook supports elevated US Treasury bond yields, boosting the safe-haven dollar and pressuring GBP/USD.
Worries about China's worsening economic conditions and rising borrowing costs are dampening investor appetite for riskier assets. USD bulls are cautious and awaiting Wednesday's US consumer inflation data, which will guide the Fed's future rate decisions, impacting the USD and GBP/USD.
The British Pound gained support from hawkish remarks by Bank of England's Catherine Mann, countering BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's warning about rising borrowing costs. Mixed UK jobs data had little impact, suggesting GBP/USD's recent decline from its YTD peak may not be over.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence. A temporary correction is happening but the big picture is still bearish for the pair.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

USDJPY

Yen's Warning and Economic Concerns Impact USD/JPY
Kanda has issued a warning about the recent Japanese Yen (JPY) sell-off, hinting at potential actions if speculative currency market movements persist. This statement negatively impacted the USD/JPY pair.
A private survey revealed that China's service sector growth hit an eight-month low, raising concerns about the weakening Chinese economy, which could affect Japanese exports.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo expects no changes to US tariffs on China, pending a review by the US Trade Representative's Office. This could heighten trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and hindering significant corrective declines in the pair.
BoJ policymaker Hajime Takata reiterated the need for an accommodative monetary policy, given economic uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations.
The Federal Reserve's plan to maintain higher interest rates supports US Treasury bond yields, favoring the Greenback.
Upcoming US data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and S&P Global PMIs for August, will provide crucial insights into the US economic situation, potentially guiding the USD/JPY pair's direction.
USDJPY coming back toward the 146.00 support level whereas the down parallel of the bullish trend helps support the price. The bullish long trend is still strong and the next level at 150 is the next target.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

Gold Prices Await US CPI Data with Fed's Interest Rate Outlook
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release carries significant weight as it guides the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, following the expected pause in September. A robust CPI reading would reinforce market expectations of further Fed policy tightening, potentially pushing gold prices lower. It's important to note that markets have factored in the possibility of a 25 basis points rate increase by year-end.
Optimistic recent US macroeconomic data bolstered confidence in a resilient economy, supporting the Fed's stance on keeping interest rates elevated. This outlook has bolstered US Treasury bond yields and boosted the US Dollar's value, though the Greenback saw some profit-taking on Monday.
Additionally, a cautious sentiment lingers in equity markets, enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal. Concerns persist about China's economic conditions and rising borrowing costs, prompting some investors to seek refuge in gold.
Traders are exercising caution before the US CPI report and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later this week. These events will shape gold's direction, but uncertainty remains about the ECB's decision amid inflation and economic concerns in the Eurozone.
Investors should await strong buying signals before betting on gold's recovery from its recent low near $1,885. These upcoming data and central bank actions will dictate gold's next move.
Gold found support at the 100MA on the 4-hour chart as the dollar retraced back yesterday, but the general view is still bearish for gold. The next support is at 1910, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by 1885.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

European Markets Navigate Mixed Performances, Tech Stocks Shine
The European market has seen modest beginnings, with healthcare giants like Novartis (NOVN), Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Roche (RO) mitigating losses incurred by Airbus (AIR) due to a rare manufacturing flaw in Pratt & Whitney engines that could ground hundreds of Airbus jets in the coming years. Irish packaging company Smurfit Kappa (SK3I) witnessed a 12% drop following its merger announcement with US peer Westrock (WRK).
The STOXX 600 remains relatively stable after recent gains, while the FTSE 100 is up 0.1%, taking advantage of a weaker pound as UK labor market data showed signs of softening. This eases pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates. Tech stocks rallied on Wall Street, notably Tesla (TSLA), driven by renewed AI enthusiasm, and UK chip designer ARM Holdings is set to go public with high investor demand.
However, the European tech sector lags, with the STOXX tech index (.SX8P) declining, largely due to a 1.5% drop in Germany's SAP (SAP) following Oracle's (ORCL) disappointing revenues.
European shares continue to rise, mirroring Asian and Wall Street gains driven by tech stocks and AI optimism. Futures for STOXX 50, DAX and FTSE 100 are all in positive territory. German wholesale prices decreased in August, offering relief to struggling manufacturers.
AstraZeneca (AZN) may face renewed scrutiny following CEO Pascal Soriot's speculated departure, which led to a 3% drop in shares. Primark owner ABF Foods (ABF) raised its full-year profit outlook, citing strong performance in its fast-fashion and food businesses.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, DAX went back toward the 15600 level after finding resistance at the 16000.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD
ECB's Crucial Decision and US Inflation Insights
The markets had been expecting a pause in the central bank's historic policy-tightening cycle in the wake of a darkening Eurozone economic outlook. That said, a Reuters report, suggesting that the ECB could revise its 2024 inflation forecast upwards, well past the 3% mark, ignited speculation about a potential rate hike. The European Commission, however, had marginally adjusted the inflation rate forecast from 2.8% to 2.9% for 2024, casting doubts on the aggressive inflation predictions. Hence, the pivotal ECB decision will play a key role in influencing the sentiment surrounding the shared currency and provide a fresh directional impetus to the EUR/USD.
The US inflation data for August came in higher than expected, mainly driven by the surge in oil prices. The gasoline index was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI), accounting for more than half of the rise.
The August inflation data may not alter the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on September 20, as markets are already pricing in a more than 95% probability of no change. However, the November meeting, which is the last one of the year, may see a rate hike if inflation remains elevated. For now, the market is expecting a wait-and-see approach to inflation from the Fed.
EURUSD continued moving inside a tight range around the last support in the 1.0650 region. Similarly, the DXY is also showing continued being supported by the 104.50 and waiting for direction.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0940	1.0850	1.0780	1.0700	1.0650	1.0600

GBPUSD

Challenges and Uncertainties Loom as GBP Faces BoE's Policy Tightening Dilemma
The British Pound (GBP) is facing challenges compared to other currencies due to reduced expectations regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) adoption of a more aggressive policy tightening strategy. This is primarily due to the recent 0.5% contraction in the UK's economy in July, its most significant decline in seven months, which has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession. Additionally, signs of a cooling labor market in the UK are increasing pressure on the BoE to pause its interest rate hikes.
Despite these concerns, the markets are still pricing in a higher likelihood of a 25-basis point rate increase at the upcoming BoE meeting on September 21. Furthermore, there is a 30% chance of another rate hike in November, while the first-rate cut is not expected until the second half of 2024. In contrast, the most recent US consumer inflation data, released on Wednesday, suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current interest rates at the next policy meeting. This has led to renewed selling of the US Dollar (USD) and is offering some support to the GBP/USD currency pair.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7% on an annual basis in August, up from 3.2% in July, slightly exceeding the expected 3.6% reading. However, the monthly CPI remained in line with forecasts, recording a 0.6% increase for the reported month. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and fuel, met expectations, rising at a year-over-year rate of 4.3%. Given these data outcomes, it is anticipated that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy stance without making significant changes.
GBP/USD continues hovering around the 1.2450 level while there is more pressure on its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2750	1.2650	1.2580	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

BoJ's Monetary Policy Shift and Fed's Rate Dilemma Shape the Path Forward
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently supported by expectations of a change in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ultra-easy monetary policy. This development is significantly influencing the USD/JPY pair. Market sentiment suggests that the central bank might abandon its yield-curve control (YCC) policy and negative interest rates as early as this year, particularly following the hawkish remarks made by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda over the weekend.
In an interview with the Yomiuri newspaper, Ueda hinted that increasing interest rates is a possible course of action if the BoJ gains confidence in the sustainability of rising prices and wages. This announcement led to a selloff in Japanese government bonds (JGB) and drove up yields. The demand for Japanese 20-year bonds at auction reached its highest level since May 2020, alleviating concerns about the normalization of the BoJ's monetary policy.
Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future rate-hike path has resulted in some selling of the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The release of US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday confirmed the Fed's intention to maintain its current interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting. Nevertheless, persistent inflation keeps hopes alive for another rate hike by year-end.
USDJPY buying pressure continues while the level 147.7 continues playing as resistance. The most probable scenario is a continuation up toward the 15.00 region especially with today's PPI and Retail sales Data that may give more clues on Inflation pressure and direction in the US.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

CPI Surpasses Expectations, Fed's Dovish Signals, and USD's Rollercoaster Ride
The YoY CPI exceeded expectations, reaching 3.7% compared to an anticipated 3.6% for August. Core CPI also rose unexpectedly, from 0.2% to 0.3%. Despite this, the annual core inflation rate remained stable at 4.3%.
Yields and the dollar are coming back to their bullish stance after some correction yesterday as the Fed may keep rates at this level for longer and maybe a last hike in November if inflationary pressures continue.
CME FedWatch Tool indicates a likely Fed interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.50% for September, suggesting growing expectations of a more dovish Fed stance. While a September rate hike is unlikely, there's a 40% chance of a 25-bps increase in November, indicating cautious investor sentiment toward potential future monetary tightening.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures USD performance against major currencies, is retreating from recent gains, trading around 104.60. Investors are focusing on upcoming US economic data, including Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and August Retail Sales figures, which could influence market sentiment.
Gold is breaking the support around the 1910 level and the next target could be around the 1885 level. Today's data will help gold find direction.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1950	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European Stocks Tread Cautiously Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
On Thursday, European stocks made slight gains, as investors remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's rate decision. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the tenth consecutive time, potentially pushing Europe's key interest rate to a record high. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike has risen to 65%, up from around 40% earlier in the week. This change in expectations followed a Reuters report on Tuesday indicating that the ECB might increase its inflation forecast for next year to over 3%. Additionally, investors are eagerly anticipating industrial production data for the UK and the eurozone later today.
The energy index (.SXEP) increased by 1%, mirroring a recovery in crude oil prices, while miners (.SXPP) gained 1.7% on stronger metal markets.
Neste (NESTE) saw a 3.1% increase in its stock price after Goldman Sachs upgraded the Finnish oil refiner and biofuels producer's rating to "buy."
China's commerce ministry warned that the European Commission's investigation into Chinese electric vehicles suspected of benefiting from state subsidies could have a "negative" impact on economic and trade relations.
On the downside, the STOXX Europe 600 auto index (.SXAP) fell by 1.1%, with Germany's Mercedes (MBG), BMW (BMW), Volkswagen (VOW), and France's Renault (RNO) declining between 1.1% and 1.9%.
DAX continues inside the range of 15500 and 16000. The wider price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, DAX went back toward the 15600 level after finding resistance at the 16000.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16000	15550	15400	15200

 

[Z Forex]

EURUSD

ECB's Cautious Monetary Policy Spurs EUR/USD Dip:
Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates by 25 basis points (bps) last Thursday, the EUR/USD pair dipped, this drop is attributed to the ECB's cautious stance on monetary policy.
The market's response indicates investor wariness of the ECB's approach, suggesting a potential pause in the rate hike cycle. The ECB hints that the rate hikes may have peaked, citing expected inflation decline and Eurozone downside risks.
China's positive data, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production, bode well for the Eurozone, its significant trading partner.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), near a six-month high, underscores USD strength, backed by positive economic indicators like Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales.
Market focus shifts to the Eurozone's EcoFin Meeting and the US preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for insights into sentiment and their impact on EUR/USD trading.
The EURUSD found support at the downward parallel of the current bearish long-term trend at 1.0640, which also coincides with a support level from May. A potential correction may occur, but when considering the DXY (US Dollar Index), it suggests that there are still some gains to be made before a possible comeback can be expected.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0940	1.0850	1.0780	1.0640	1.0600	1.0530

GBPUSD

Dollar Retreats, but Bearish Sentiment Looms
The USD's profit-taking, retreating from recent highs, supports GBP/USD, thanks to optimism about Chinese stimulus and positive macro data. Lower US Treasury yields weaken the dollar, but expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance could limit USD declines.
The Fed is likely to pause its rate hikes soon, but the chance of a 25-basis point increase in November or December remains due to strong US economic data. Inflation and sustained higher interest rates may favor the USD. Reduced chances of aggressive tightening by the Bank of England could hinder the GBP/USD pair, given the UK's economic contraction and cooling labor market.
Traders await the BoE's Consumer Inflation Expectations survey, with US data like the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index potentially impacting the GBP/USD pair. However, the fundamental backdrop seems bearish, with spot prices set to close lower for the second consecutive week.
GBP/USD found support around 1.2400 while also touching the lower boundary of the bearish channel. A possible correction may occur soon if the dollar starts to rebound after reaching historical levels.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2750	1.2650	1.2580	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

USDJPY

USD Strength Persists as Markets Await Fed Meeting
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is near a high of 105.30, supported by robust US economic data. Investors await the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Positive signs include August's 1.5% YoY growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales up 0.6% MoM. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were at 220,000, reinforcing the US economy's resilience and August's inflation rebound.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain steady, with current interest rates likely to continue. The Fed's hawkish stance supports US bond yields and the USD. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains cautious, emphasizing the need for wage and inflation improvements, leaving the Japanese Yen (JPY) vulnerable.
Japan's Machinery Orders fell 13% in July, failing to strengthen the JPY. Upcoming releases of the US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey will offer insight into the Fed's potential interest rate decisions, crucial ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
USDJPY's buying pressure continues, while the level of 147.7 is acting as resistance. The most probable scenario is a continuation upwards towards the 150.00 region, especially with today's PPI and Retail Sales data, which may provide more clues about inflation pressure and the direction in the US.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

The gold price extended gains, trading near $1,920 per troy ounce in the early European session, supported by a slight US Dollar (USD) correction. Positive Chinese economic data, including a 4.6% YoY increase in retail sales and 4.5% growth in industrial production, boosted market optimism.
The USD retreated from its recent high of around 105.20 on the US Dollar Index (DXY), but a substantial decline is limited due to caution regarding the US Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy stance. US Treasury yields recovered, with the 10-year yield at 4.30%, potentially supporting the USD.
Recent positive US economic data, such as Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures, suggest a healthy economic environment influencing market sentiment.
The US preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release will be closely monitored for a minor decline from 69.1 to 69.5 during the North American session.
Gold, after reaching the 1900 level, retraced back towards the 1920 range. The current trend remains bearish, and further selloffs are possible since the fundamentals are still not in favor of gold. If a new selloff begins, 1885 could serve as the next significant support level for gold.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1950	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European Stocks Rally on ECB Rate Hike and Positive Chinese Data
European stocks experienced a significant surge on Friday, building upon their positive momentum from the prior session. This upswing was primarily driven by optimism surrounding the European Central Bank's likelihood of reaching a peak in interest rates.
During the previous day, the central bank implemented its 10th consecutive rate hike, amounting to a 25-basis point increase. However, it also indicated its potential willingness to halt further tightening of monetary policy due to signs of receding inflation.
Additionally, investors responded positively to the strong Chinese economic data that surpassed expectations, showcasing substantial growth in both industrial activity and retail sales.
In the corporate realm, fashion conglomerate H&M reported quarterly sales that remained stagnant, falling short of the anticipated figures.
DAX continues inside the range of 15500 and 16000. The wider price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at the 16,400 level. In the short term, DAX went back toward the 15600 level after finding resistance at the 16000.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16000	15550	15400	15200