This May be of interest to anyone interested in trying to time the market.
After the last two weeks remarkable 700 point rally that has now
broke the 10362 September 7th top, I have to say that I am somewhat
temporary uncertain what to expect next. From the yearly February
19th top the market had made 3 main lower swing tops on April
6th/7th .. June 24th and September 7th.. It had been still in a
bearish mode although there wasnt a great range formed compared to
recent past years. The Market had been a bit tricky in my opinion to
determine as there was some signs no doubt of a possible
consolidation with what appears as a long term bullish flag chart
formation. On the SPX there was what looked like an inverse head and
should pattern that formed. So far the SPX has now broke to new
yearly highs. The Dow looks weaker of the two markets, but whats just
happened doesnt make it an easy answer.
What was rather annoying is that I had a great cycle in during August for a Low on the Dow, BUT the Dow didnt hold on that cycle and went lower to Oct 25th.. BUT the SPX did hold..
The next cycle I had on the dow had been 15th to 18th which didnt work, BUT I did have the next one in on the 26th Oct that did seem to start the main boost of this 2 week rally.
Now having seen the recent rally one has to ask is this the start of
another bull run OR is it going to catch the bulls out and turn out
as a bear trap.
Whats happened for now has put me in a temporary neutral mode based
on certain swing chart patterns that I use. With the SPX at new highs
above ALL the last main swing tops of the year and the Dow Now above
the Septembers top of 10362 this has offset my bearish view until I
see a few other things occurr.
Firstly Will the Dow maintain this rally into this week OR will it
reverse back down.
2nd If it maintains its rally.. Will it main continue up AFTER the
November 17th to 19th time frame ? Which I believe will be an
important time frame this month due to numerous cycles that I have
during this period. IF it topped out here at one of my price levels
that I have in mind then I would still think the market could sell
off.
If the market does decline this week WE MAY see another important Low
around 17th to 19th and the market MAY continue up again later in the
month.
If the market breaks the recent 10400 level Ive 10500 to 10600 in
mind. Below is an extract from another post I made recently with
various price Support and resistance levels that I have in mind.
Apart from over this weekend / Monday next week I dont have very many
good looking cycles, So Id like to see a reversal back down next week
IF the market fails to make new highs on the 8th,
The following weeks a different story. The 17th looks very
interesting !
On the Dow its hit between the 61.8 and 66.6% retracement of 10752 to
9702 of 1050 pt range. The 61.8 retrace was around 10350 and the 66.6
% retrace is 10400.
At one time the dow often seemed to react to the 66.6% retrace of
range moves IMO.
BUT Apart from timing I dont have great other indicators to back it
up.
My next indicator points to between 10500 to 10600 if we start higher
above Fridays highs.
Other possible support areas if we go higher are 10444 (70.7% R ) and
10500 to 10527 ( 78.6% R ) The 10527 area looks most promising based
on 2 or 3 main indicators I use. I also had several trendlines
pointing here a few weeks ago before the mkt fell below 9800.
My problem is IF the market delines to what level. I cant see it
greatly declining just next week Now new highs have been made on Both
SPX and DOW.
10233, 10130 ( 38.2% R ) or 10050 the 50% retrace...61.8 % R = 9971
and 9937 = 66.6 % R
Id be surprised if we went below 10,000 next week HOWEVER Mondays
cycle could see a similar move to that between the last 2 trade days
and IF cycles come in the following week as Lower tops below 10400
then the mkt could maintain again to new lows.
I do have some other Important times for Monday 8th, I hope to add
them before the cash market opens.. I have a bit of a problem at the
moment on certain Timings that I have to try and recalculate. this
has occurred since the change in the Hour last weekend.
It Can cause me problems in certain calculations.. so please be
patient..Sometimes it may take a few days to get fully back on track.
I THINK I was out 2 hrs on that Cycle I had on Nov 4th for 9.08 am
due to this..
So far As I write ( 4 am UK ) the Dow futures had been down about 50 pts to 10350 after fridays top of about 10412.
So far my Opening cycles worked as I thought...need to see if it maintains down into the cash mkt and the rest of the day..
Ive only posted times that I know are not effected by the hour change.
For Nov 8th
Times below are UK for EST minus 5 hrs.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/ganncycles2004
5.26
7.38
14.30*****
14.53/58****
15.01
15.12/18
15.25
16.17
16.54
17.02
17.30
17.39??
18.12
19.09***
19.54***
20.09*****
20.17
20.54/21.00
After the last two weeks remarkable 700 point rally that has now
broke the 10362 September 7th top, I have to say that I am somewhat
temporary uncertain what to expect next. From the yearly February
19th top the market had made 3 main lower swing tops on April
6th/7th .. June 24th and September 7th.. It had been still in a
bearish mode although there wasnt a great range formed compared to
recent past years. The Market had been a bit tricky in my opinion to
determine as there was some signs no doubt of a possible
consolidation with what appears as a long term bullish flag chart
formation. On the SPX there was what looked like an inverse head and
should pattern that formed. So far the SPX has now broke to new
yearly highs. The Dow looks weaker of the two markets, but whats just
happened doesnt make it an easy answer.
What was rather annoying is that I had a great cycle in during August for a Low on the Dow, BUT the Dow didnt hold on that cycle and went lower to Oct 25th.. BUT the SPX did hold..
The next cycle I had on the dow had been 15th to 18th which didnt work, BUT I did have the next one in on the 26th Oct that did seem to start the main boost of this 2 week rally.
Now having seen the recent rally one has to ask is this the start of
another bull run OR is it going to catch the bulls out and turn out
as a bear trap.
Whats happened for now has put me in a temporary neutral mode based
on certain swing chart patterns that I use. With the SPX at new highs
above ALL the last main swing tops of the year and the Dow Now above
the Septembers top of 10362 this has offset my bearish view until I
see a few other things occurr.
Firstly Will the Dow maintain this rally into this week OR will it
reverse back down.
2nd If it maintains its rally.. Will it main continue up AFTER the
November 17th to 19th time frame ? Which I believe will be an
important time frame this month due to numerous cycles that I have
during this period. IF it topped out here at one of my price levels
that I have in mind then I would still think the market could sell
off.
If the market does decline this week WE MAY see another important Low
around 17th to 19th and the market MAY continue up again later in the
month.
If the market breaks the recent 10400 level Ive 10500 to 10600 in
mind. Below is an extract from another post I made recently with
various price Support and resistance levels that I have in mind.
Apart from over this weekend / Monday next week I dont have very many
good looking cycles, So Id like to see a reversal back down next week
IF the market fails to make new highs on the 8th,
The following weeks a different story. The 17th looks very
interesting !
On the Dow its hit between the 61.8 and 66.6% retracement of 10752 to
9702 of 1050 pt range. The 61.8 retrace was around 10350 and the 66.6
% retrace is 10400.
At one time the dow often seemed to react to the 66.6% retrace of
range moves IMO.
BUT Apart from timing I dont have great other indicators to back it
up.
My next indicator points to between 10500 to 10600 if we start higher
above Fridays highs.
Other possible support areas if we go higher are 10444 (70.7% R ) and
10500 to 10527 ( 78.6% R ) The 10527 area looks most promising based
on 2 or 3 main indicators I use. I also had several trendlines
pointing here a few weeks ago before the mkt fell below 9800.
My problem is IF the market delines to what level. I cant see it
greatly declining just next week Now new highs have been made on Both
SPX and DOW.
10233, 10130 ( 38.2% R ) or 10050 the 50% retrace...61.8 % R = 9971
and 9937 = 66.6 % R
Id be surprised if we went below 10,000 next week HOWEVER Mondays
cycle could see a similar move to that between the last 2 trade days
and IF cycles come in the following week as Lower tops below 10400
then the mkt could maintain again to new lows.
I do have some other Important times for Monday 8th, I hope to add
them before the cash market opens.. I have a bit of a problem at the
moment on certain Timings that I have to try and recalculate. this
has occurred since the change in the Hour last weekend.
It Can cause me problems in certain calculations.. so please be
patient..Sometimes it may take a few days to get fully back on track.
I THINK I was out 2 hrs on that Cycle I had on Nov 4th for 9.08 am
due to this..
So far As I write ( 4 am UK ) the Dow futures had been down about 50 pts to 10350 after fridays top of about 10412.
So far my Opening cycles worked as I thought...need to see if it maintains down into the cash mkt and the rest of the day..
Ive only posted times that I know are not effected by the hour change.
For Nov 8th
Times below are UK for EST minus 5 hrs.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/ganncycles2004
5.26
7.38
14.30*****
14.53/58****
15.01
15.12/18
15.25
16.17
16.54
17.02
17.30
17.39??
18.12
19.09***
19.54***
20.09*****
20.17
20.54/21.00